Battle of the Models: Is Joaquin an Isabel or a Sandy?
UPDATE: Quotes from our Fortune Magazine article: "One of the most alarming rainfall forecasts I've ever seen" / "Joaquin's damage into the billions $, potential to be as devastating as Sandy"
ORIGINAL BLOG:
Flooding (from not only Hurricane Joaquin, but other systems as discussed yesterday) is still the major story, but the GFS has (overnight) joined the list of models who (at one time) have predicted a mid-Atlantic landfall:
This, combined with Joaquin's upgrade to Hurricane status this morning, had the storm trending #1 in the U.S. on Twitter around 9 this morning:
However, the European run last night completely disagrees, saying the storm stays out at sea, and the ATCF models still have quite a spread, predicting landfall from North Carolina through Delaware (or no landfall at all). That said, there continues to be a congregation of landfall predictions from those models near the border of North Carolina and Virginia.
History tells us a storm has never taken this track. Interestingly, if you look at the upper-level charts and try to match them to past storms, the mostly likely analog (as of this morning) is Hurricane Josephine (1984), which stayed offshore -- although Isabel is #3.
In the end, it will matter most to residents whether Joaquin turns into an Isabel or a Sandy or something weaker in the middle (probably the most likely solution). Every storm is different, after all, but the mid-Atlantic has little history with hurricanes, so we have to think about Isabel and Sandy, especially the ways they may have caught people unprepared, to prepare for Joaquin.
Up until this morning, the forecast strength of Joaquin made it less important than Cat 3 Sandy or Cat 4 Isabel, but the overnight models became very bullish with strength, with most saying Joaquin will become a Cat 1 hurricane, some Cat 2, and one Cat 3. The morning model updates were even more impressive, with at least three predictions of a major (Cat 3) hurricane and one showing Cat 4!
A final thought: Bernie Rayno's video this morning, he is leaning in that direction, saying "If Hurricane âª#Joaquin⬠is directed into the coast, it will be a devastating storm for the mid-Atlantic and those living from the NC to NJ coast should begin preparations today."
