UPDATE: The image below from CoCoRaHS shows the highest rainfall amounts that I have seen reported from gauges so far, including 6.74" near Gonzalez, Florida and in southern Alabama and 6.61" near Foley. I have updated the precip estimate map below which does not show these amounts but does estimate over 6 inches in northwest Alabama.

ORIGINAL ENTRY: OK a few important things for you to know this morning that might be lost in the confusion on what we're calling "Tropical Rainstorm Ida" (the storm is gone according to the NHC but we would like to keep it named until the danger is over). There's a lot of information out there and I think the important bullet points are having trouble getting to the top of the fray:

1. The story is not over. Tropical Rainstorm Ida will be moving slowly and erratically with the ability to draw in copious Atlantic and Gulf moisture. The 84-hour models show it being, at best, barely off the Southeast coast by the end of the week!. You will be probably seeing footage of flooded streets and homes in the Southeast on the news for the next few days, maybe a week. Right now the models are talking about a foot of rain (WRF | NMM | GFS) in the next 2-3 days; if the slow movement keeps it going for a few more days, this storm could end up going down in history like an Allison 2001 or Floyd 1999. Already over 5 inches has fallen according to the NWS precip site:

2. The future track of the storm is in question. You will hear people say "the track doesn't matter" and that is now true of the eye of the storm when you're talking winds but where the storm wanders in general will dictate who gets flooded and for how long. Since the track is in question, forecast models are in question and meteorologists are unsure of the long-term forecast. Our official forecast this morning shows it going through southern Georgia and off the Carolina coast and our official rainfall maps show the bulk of the rain over Georgia today (map & story) and the Carolinas mid-week (map). After that it gets questionable; the long-range model spread this morning is showing all kinds of crazy tracks:

3. The ground is saturated in Georgia and the westernmost Carolinas due to recent rains but is NOT in the eastern Carolinas. This is true whether you look at the 60-day (shown below) or even 14-day precipitation deficit maps. This means that flooding will occur more quickly in the western area BUT because the eastern Carolinas could be under rain for a longer time when the storm stalls out, so you may not notice that difference and flooding may be very severe from Georgia through the eastern Carolinas. Mathematically and meteorologically speaking, the long-term drought in the eastern Carolinas could be ended by this storm but unfortunately that will come by way of massive flooding.

4. There have been about 10,000 power outages from the storm so far. This is according to the major power companies who have reported: Alabama Power and Gulf Power. There are others who have not reported. About 50% have been restored this morning. This means that the storm did not have very strong winds at landfall, compared to a major hurricane, but did still cause significant disruption of power. As we said yesterday, the bigger story is going to be the rain.

5. The middle of the East Coast will get hammered, but not directly because of Ida. These areas will get coastal flooding, rip tides and large waves normally associated with a Nor'easter, but NOT because this storm will bomb out and ride the coast... there is already a strong high pressure in place over New England which will cause a tight pressure gradient in-between the storms. People up and down the coast should stay out of the water and secure beachfront property starting tonight. This is taken from our story and graphic shown below.

I'll also add #6: You need to stay tuned to AccuWeather.com and Hurricane.AccuWeather.com for the latest information on Ida. I may not be able to keep up on this blog and we have a team of dedicated news writers who are placing the latest information online 24/7, including updated rainfall forecast maps and track changes.

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