Ken Clark

Miriam to Impact Land, But Where?

September 24, 2012; 12:26 PM ET

Strong Hurricane Miriam is swirling south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja and moving northwest. Miriam's signature on satellite pictures this afternoon is not quite as impressive as earlier in the day as the eye just is not quite as sharp. Still it is a formidable storm but out to sea, for now.

Miriam has about another 12 to 18 hours for any further intensification, but after that, it will start to move over cooler sea surface temperatures and weakening will begin. These Eastern Pacific storms tend to increase quicker than models can handle but also can weaken faster, too. Since Miriam is so strong now, it will take some time for winds to come down. After continuing northwest into tomorrow, a more northerly course is expected midweek then a turn to the northeast. Most of the hurricane models are in agreement with this and so to is the European, though the European is about 18 to 24 hours quicker moving it into the central Baja on Friday.

These models would take the moisture from Miriam and send it into western Texas and New Mexico and perhaps parts of southeastern Arizona.

However, the operational GFS uses a closed upper-level low west of Southern California in the late week to help turn what is left of Miriam more north and brings increasing moisture toward Southern California.

While this scenario seems to be the far less likely one, the chance today is not zero either. Remember as of last Thursday, the GFS was forecasting moisture to come north into Southern California. For now, I am putting many of my eggs in the farther east solution, but I am withholding an egg or two. One never knows when you might just need that egg when it comes to weather forecasting.

The views expressed are those of the author and not necessarily those of AccuWeather, Inc. or AccuWeather.com

Comments

Comments left here should adhere to the AccuWeather.com Community Guidelines. Profanity, personal attacks, and spam will not be tolerated.

More Western U.S. Weather Blog

Eastern Pacific hurricane season finally showing life

July 1, 2016; 2:16 PM ET

As of the end of June there had been no named storms in the Eastern Pacific basin.

Intense, dangerous and all-time record-challenging Southwest heat coming

June 15, 2016; 8:00 AM ET

This is some serious and dangerous heat. Outdoor activity is just not at all recommended during the daytime.

Western heat wave; hottest of season so far

June 2, 2016; 3:01 PM ET

A strong ridge of high pressure in the West brings the highest heat of the season so far to a large area.

Late-season mountain snow and cold

May 18, 2016; 8:02 PM ET

Combine the cold with the wind and some precipitation and there is a real danger of hypothermia.

Late-season storm brings the Southwest unsettled weather

May 5, 2016; 1:41 PM ET

Any shower and thunderstorm can contain heavy downpours, heavy enough to cause temporary, low-lying ponding.

Warmth to continue into May in the Northwest

April 28, 2016; 6:43 PM ET

According to all long-range models, the warmest area in North America compared to average will be over the Northwest.

Older Posts

About This Blog

Ken Clark

Ken Clark's Western U.S. weather blog tackles daily weather events with commentary from one of the most experienced and trusted Western U.S. weather experts.