Weekly Long Range Update Into November

**Note: Hurricane Gonzalo, which is passing north of Puerto Rico will pass very close to Bermuda Friday night with the potential for damaging winds and heavy rain. After that, Gonzalo will accelerate northeast and may impact Newfoundland later Saturday or Sunday as a Category 1 hurricane or strong tropical storm that is transitioning to extratropical (meaning losing tropical characteristics). Residents in Newfoundland and even Cape Breton, Nova Scotia, should monitor this situation through this week. I will have further updates through the week.

The latest GFS forecast for Gonzalo on Saturday (obviously the GFS is faster and farther west with the track on this run)

Before I get to the extended long-range interpretation, the pattern across much of North America will not be a cold one as a Pacific flow of air dominates. While there will be pockets of chilly air moving across southern Canada and into the U.S. from time to time, the core of the cold, Arctic air will actually be on the other side of the pole and over Siberia.

Based on long-range modeling and other teleconnections, it appears that the mild pattern will be the dominant one into early November across much of southern Canada and into the U.S.

Both the European and the U.S. extended long-range models are in fairly good agreement into early November.

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