Weekly long-range forecast clues

Below is my latest ECMWF forecast model interpretation.

It appears that the model is strengthening the jet across the southern U.S. during the first two weeks of January (classic winter El Nino pattern) which leads to a wet pattern across the South. Whether or not some of those storms turn up the coast and phase with any northern energy remains to be seen. However, I do think we will be seeing an increasing opportunity for storms over at least Atlantic Canada as we get into January.

The model is also showing a warming trend over Alaska which could eventually translate to colder conditions downstream into eastern Canada, but a lot of that depends on what goes on over the polar region and near Greenland.

February continues to look like it will be the coldest of the winter months compared to normal across the eastern half of Canada.

I do think their will be some opportunity for Arctic air to come down into Labrador and at least the northern half of Quebec during early January.

Overall, It still looks like much of eastern Canada will see above-normal temperatures for January as a whole, but not nearly to the extent of what we have seen so far in December. Cold air masses will come and go but probably not get locked for an extended period like they did the past two seasons. Even with above-normal temperatures that does not mean that there cannot be a major snowstorm or two.

Projected jet stream changes also would favor a drier pattern setting up across BC and the Pacific Northwest in January, which is what we have been showing over the past couple of months. Western ski areas have done very well so far this season and even with a drier/milder second half to the winter the ski season should still end up to be an excellent one across the region with drier/milder conditions favoring travel to these resorts.

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