Update on Gonzalo and the Long Range

I have no significant changes to what I wrote yesterday in regards to Gonzalo's eventual impact on southeastern Newfoundland.

Computer modeling is mostly clustered with a storm center tracking just south and east of Cape Race, NL, early Sunday morning, which is a little bit slower than what they showed over the past two days and would mean that the worst conditions would be late Saturday night and early Sunday morning. I still can see how the storm ends up moving faster than that and our forecast still shows that.

If the storm center does stay offshore, then the worst conditions will also stay offshore and the Avalon Peninsula will just have a period of heavy rain and tropical storm force winds. However, a slight deviation north and west takes the center inland over southeastern Newfoundland and the Avalon Peninsula gets into the core of the stronger winds with possible hurricane-force wind gusts and widespread power outages, downed trees, etc. At this point, we still lean toward the lesser of two evils with the track remaining just offshore, which makes a big difference in terms of impacts.

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Long-range forecast model interpretation indicates that mild weather will dominate across the eastern half of the country into mid-November, while the West Coast gets more storms.