Tremendous temperature gradient currently in place along the Continental Divide then down into extreme southern Alberta and southeastward into North Dakota. For example, as of noon local time, it was 57 degrees (14 C) in Great Falls, Mont., while to the north it was 10 degrees F (-12 C) in Calgary, Alberta, and 1 F (-17 C) in Edmonton with steady snow.
The front (boundary) dividing these temperature extremes will continue to be the focus for precipitation tonight into Friday with the steadier snow to the north of the front.
Snow will taper off across the southern Prairies from northwest to southeast Friday morning.
As suspected, the strong blocking pattern taking shape over northeastern Canada will force the snow a little more to the south than what we thought yesterday. The result of this will be just a coating of snow for Winnipeg and a near miss for much of the GTA Friday night.
This whole mess will spread into southwestern Ontario late in the day Friday and continue Friday night before ending Saturday morning.
The farther south trend also means a slightly weaker system, so that even in areas that get into the steadiest snow the accumulations will likely be under 8 cm. The region around Kitchener and Hamilton could end up with a coating to 2 cm Friday night, but then it will be quickly wiped out by the stronger March sun Saturday afternoon.
Major storm potential early next week.......
The potential is there for a much more significant storm forming over the Ohio Valley early next week. The track is still highly in doubt, and with a blocking pattern in place to the north, the models may end up being too far north and too warm with this. Below is an initial snapshot of what this storm may look like sometime on Monday. Obviously, we will have to make adjustments to the track and precipitation types over the next few days as we get a better handle on the storm evolution.
By the way, latest indications are that temperatures from northern BC through most of the Prairies will average anywhere from 7 to 12 C (14 to 21 F) below normal over the next seven to nine days as Arctic Oscillation goes in the tank and forces the polar vortex much farther south into Canada.
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Highlights of the upcoming weather through the weekend.
Mild Pacific air will be common in the West and East during the month of October, as the core of cold air mostly hangs out across the North with some intrusions into the Prairies.
Some forecast clues to the weather pattern into late October.
Mild pattern setting up for much of southern Canada.
A touch of Indian Summer for many at the end of this month and into early October.
Do recent cold weather events signal an early winter for Canada?