Brett Anderson

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Potential Weather Pattern Through Early June

May 13, 2014; 2:56 AM ET

Short term

A surge of warm and somewhat humid air will cover most of southwestern Ontario Tuesday with afternoon temperature in the 26-29 C range. The exception will be near the lakeshores, where the cold water will lead to much cooler breezes.

The combination of high temperatures, increasing dewpoints and cooling aloft will lead to some thunderstorms during the day and evening Tuesday with the potential for some heavy downpours.

A strengthening upper-level storm will send more energy into the high dewpoint air mass over southern Ontario Wednesday night through Thursday night with the potential for another round of heavier rain and strong thunderstorms. Flash flooding is a possibility during the period.


ECMWF model weekly update


Seasonal clues

The latest update of the ECMWF model seasonal forecast indicates a cool, somewhat wet summer for the central Prairies. We (AccuWeather) agree with the cool idea, especially from the central Prairies and farther east, but we are not as wet over the central Prairies.

The ECMWF continues to insist that a moderate to strong El Nino will be underway by the upcoming fall.

Based on the above information, the model forecasts drier-than-normal conditions over the Caribbean during the height of the tropical cyclone season and a below-normal number of cyclones in the Atlantic basin, which is in line with our forecast.

A moderate to strong El Nino would also support a milder winter in terms of temperatures from BC to the southern Prairies.

Farther east, the strength of El Nino is critical to the actual impacts, if any, during the winter.

If we do reach moderate to strong El Nino conditions by the last few months of the year, I would not be at all surprised if 2015 ends up as the warmest year on record globally.

The views expressed are those of the author and not necessarily those of AccuWeather, Inc. or


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About This Blog

Brett Anderson
Brett Anderson covers both short-term and long-term weather and storm forecasts for Canada in this blog for