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    Brett Anderson

    Long-Range Pattern Update

    7/11/2014, 11:51:11 AM

    Pattern next week

    A highly amplified jet stream pattern will set up across North America this weekend into next week, and this will bring a pocket of unusually cool air down into the U.S. Midwest early next week, which will gradually spread to the east. Out west, the heat will build over the Pacific Northwest and into BC this weekend into early next week.

    The images below show the projected temperature departures from normal (deg. C) for Monday and Wednesday next week, courtesy of the ECMWF model....


    590x442_07111421_ecmwfued-tmp--conus-90-c-2mtempanom_1d_white

    590x442_07111423_ecmwfued-tmp--conus-138-c-2mtempanom_1d_white


    This pattern also translates to well above-normal rainfall from New England through New Brunswick and possibly PEI and Nova Scotia by the middle of next week as very moist air surges north out ahead of the strong trough.

    ------

    Update on the weekly long range

    This is my latest interpretation of the ECMWF forecast model.....


    590x458_07111428_jul11a

    590x458_07111429_jul11b

    590x458_07111431_jul11cc


    ----

    New August temperature and precipitation anomaly outlooks from the NMME/IMME multimodel ensembles, which have shown improved accuracy over individual models. The NMME/IMME are still experimental, but NOAA is hoping for these to become operational in the future.

    **The NMME is based off of a number of U.S. and Canadian long-range models, while the IMME is based off of international models, including the ECMWF, French and UKMET.

    NMME August temperature anomaly forecast

    590x455_07111436_nmme_ensemble_tmp2m_us_lead1


    NMME August precipitation anomaly forecast

    590x455_07111437_nmme_ensemble_prate_us_lead1


    IMME August temperature anomaly forecast

    590x450_07111437_imme_tmp2m_us_lead1


    IMME August precipitation anomaly forecast

    590x450_07111438_imme_prate_us_lead1

    The views expressed are those of the author and not necessarily those of AccuWeather, Inc. or AccuWeather.com

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