Latest Weekly Clues to the Long Range into January

Below is my latest interpretation of the ECMWF forecast model weeklies that were released last evening.

1. Still no signs of any sustained, cross polar flow (direct shots of Arctic air) into Canada and the U.S. during the period, but there will be some intrusions of continental cold into the western U.S. and northeastern Canada.

3. Latest stratosphere data still showing no signs of any significant warming event near the pole that would break down the +AO. However, as I stated last week it is still early in the season.

4. Models continue to try to bring the highest temperature departures farther west into western Canada late in the period, which would allow for some cooling in the east.

5. Colder air will likely spread from the eastern Prairies to eastern Canada late next week with the potential for some lake-effect snow downwind of the Great Lakes, but with a lack of upstream blocking (west-to-east flow of Pacific air more dominant) the cold will not stick around too long.

6. I will be issuing a daily update of the percentage chance of a white Christmas for selected cities in Canada starting Monday.

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