Canada summer outlook
The two maps below show projected temperature and precipitation departures from normal for the combined summer months of June, July and August.
The summer of 2016 will be very warm across large portions of Canada with extended periods of hot and dry weather, especially across the western and central part of the country.
The 2016 wildfire season got off to a quick start and we expect another active season across the West. Widespread smoke from these fires will be a factor through the summer months, resulting in lower air quality and an increase in hazy skies and red sunsets all the way into southeastern Canada and the U.S.
The worst drought conditions are currently across Alberta and northeastern British Columbia and based on our forecast we do not expect any significant relief during the summer months as the primary storm track from the Pacific will remain too far to the north and west.
I expect an unusually high number of days (relative to normal) reaching above 32 degrees C. from interior British Columbia through the Prairies and into northwestern Ontario.
Along the immediate West Coast, the summer will be slightly warmer than normal thanks in part to the large area of above-normal sea surface temperatures over the northeast Pacific. Increasingly dry soils over British Columbia will also enhance summertime warmth.
Farther east, the summer will bring more up and down temperature patterns as frontal passages will be common, however, much of the region from southern Ontario through Atlantic Canada will end up with a warmer summer compared to normal.
July could be an an active month in terms of severe thunderstorms, especially from southern/eastern Ontario through southern Quebec and interior New Brunswick as several fronts will clash with very warm and steamy air surging up from the southern states.
Atlantic Canada will experience a fairly typical summer, but July and August will be more humid than usual, which will limit the amount of nighttime cooling and promote more fog.
Compared to last year, there is an increased risk of a tropical storm impacting coastal Atlantic Canada later in the summer and into the Fall as El Nino fades away. The sea ice melt season across the far north of Canada is off to a fast start once again and latest indications suggest that sea ice extent by the end of this summer will be well-below normal in the Arctic region. This process which will further enhance warming across the far north since darker, open water absorbs more heat than light colored snow and ice.
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