The headline looks like hype but is certainly true (just by looking at the calendar... which I might add... is dated). A storm that has brought hardship and danger to parts of Texas and Arkansas with an assortment of ice and snow will send a swath of snow northeastward today and tonight. Here is a map showing our overall estimates as of 10 a.m. ET. During the morning, thunderstorms broke out in western Virginia. The possibility of convective activity (like thunderstorms) in conjunction with snow suggests there will narrow band in which accumulations are much greater than the average expectations shown on this kind of map. The thunderstorms can also be a sign of enhanced rain fall southeast of the snow area.
On the other hand, we have seen cases in which bands of thunderstorms developed, and this then helped reduce precipitation to the north and west because there is less upward motion, compensating for the intense upward motion we find in thunderstorms.
In the morning video, I discuss the huge temperature variations across the Northeast and explain what a Sunday to Monday storms will do. Although the I-95 corridor from D.C. to Boston should wind up with rain from this, there could be a disrupted period characterized by snow and ice at the beginning.
In Boston and New York City, the cold may feel most harsh late tomorrow and tomorrow evening. The temperatures will not have hit bottom by then, but gusty winds will sharpen the chill.
One concern: the chance of cold frontal snow squalls that could move all the way to the East Coast tomorrow night. Sudden snow squalls have been implicated in chain reaction collisions that turn deadly and damaging.
These two maps show the change from the very, very cold flow likely this Saturday to the much milder Pacific-origin westerly flow later next week.
When we look more closely, we see a variety of disturbances embedded in the main current, each capable of temporarily increasing or cutting off the chance of snow. This map shows the setup:
This map shows the circulation around the offshore storm and a larger but less intense storm moving into the Great Lakes. With this sprawling storm likely to be in the region for several days, the weather can vary widely.
...speculation about a snowstorm Monday or Tuesday, and one is still possible. However, timing and placement remain elusive. This map shows the GFS ensemble mean "solution" for Tuesday morning showing snow just off the New England coast. Watch this story evolve on accuweather.com all weekend.