Warmth and Moisture this Week

Monday 10 PM

I am out out of the office until Wednesday May 9th and may post occasionally during this period. As warmer and more humid air spreads northeastward, thunderstorms are erupting. Here is a map showing lightning strokes from 8PM until 9:30 PM EDT.

When I recall how it snowed in parts of the northern and central Appalachians last week, the prospect of summer warmth as suggested by the GFS for this Friday represents quite a change.

Following the upper stratospheric reversal from the vortex that lasted all winter to a high pressure area early in April, high latitude blocking developed, and this promoted the multiple frosts and freezes in the Northeast since then. Even now, model projections between now and the middle of May show warm ups and reversals, but is seems the worst of this is behind us. Then again, what should we expect now that May is starting?