Building heat dome could spark tropical development near southern US in Atlantic
Warm Atlantic waters, combined with the edge of a building heat dome, could allow storm clusters to organize into a tropical system as July begins, AccuWeather meteorologists say.
A large waterspout formed over the waters of southern Louisiana, creating a dramatic weather display on June 25.
AccuWeather meteorologists are monitoring the southwestern Atlantic for possible tropical development during the first week of July.
The next name on the Atlantic tropical storm list for the 2026 hurricane season is Bertha.
Clusters of thunderstorms are expected to develop along the tail end of a front that stalls near the southern Atlantic coast later this week. The storms could condense into an area of low pressure that, given warm ocean waters, could intensify into a tropical or subtropical storm.
As a massive heat dome builds over the eastern half of the nation this week, a clockwise flow around the area of high pressure will steer clusters of thunderstorms along its edges.
Storms will move northeastward from the Rockies into the Dakotas, eastern Montana and western Minnesota before turning southeastward near the Great Lakes. Farther south, thunderstorm clusters will instead drift from east to west, opposite the more typical west-to-east pattern.
Any tropical system or less-organized thunderstorm cluster that moves ashore in Georgia or northern Florida would likely see development stall.
Multiple thunderstorm clusters may follow this westward path from the southern Atlantic coast into the southeastern United States. Their close proximity to land and strong northeasterly wind shear would limit their chances of organizing.
Even if none of the clusters become tropical depressions or storms, periods of heavy rain and gusty thunderstorms are likely this week from the Carolinas through Georgia and Florida and into Louisiana and Texas. At the same time, areas farther north continue to swelter beneath the heat dome.
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Swimmers and boaters should be alert for locally rough surf, choppy seas and dangerous lightning. Even if it is dry at the beach, the weather pattern could raise the risk of dangerous rip currents.
The setup will resemble the westward movement of tropical waves that typically travel from Africa across the tropical Atlantic toward the Caribbean during the peak of hurricane season.
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