Wednesday 9 a.m.
Today is national turtle day, and by coincidence the Northeast is experiencing a slow-moving weather pattern. With a front separating cool air from hot air likely to be in the Northeast this weekend, offering a confident forecast for each day of the Memorial Day weekend would really be sticking my neck out. If I am right, you'll say I told the truth... but if I am wrong you could claim I amphibious.
One thing I want to stress (and at this time of year, this is really not thinking out of the box) the presence of a frontal zone and quickening flow aloft can lead to an outbreak of severe thunderstorms. For the Northeast, we should be alert for that possibility this weekend.
Thunderstorms will be hit or miss this afternoon from New York state to Virginia. So, picking up on the turtle theme, keep in mind that if you are out with friends this afternoon you might look up and say "there's a thunderstorm coming tortoise."
OK. We crawled to this slowly, but here's the video:
Tropical Storm Erika could eventually affect Florida and other sections of the Gulf Coast or Southeast, but for now it poses no threat for the Northeast. This map shows the storm as of early this morning.
The second concern is Erika. The map below shows what many different models area saying. While there is a good agreement in the short range, the longer-range spread is quite larger, with tracks ...
This picture shows where Erika is. The various models show a track toward Florida with a lot of uncertainty after that. If it does make it to land, then moves slowly (steering forces look weak), it could be a major rain producer.
It is way too early to be definitive about these storms, but the many models being used in predicting the track have closer agreement than many storms have at this point.
On this satellite picture, you can see a cold front approaching the Appalachians. That front helped produce thunderstorms in the Midwest yesterday, but that activity died out overnight. It is likely to reactivate today, with...
...shows a north-south trough line over New England. Moist air will approach this line from the southeast while northerly breezes bring in dry weather west of the line. As the front stalls then slowly backs up, some moisture can spread westward later in the weekend.