In this video, I show how the changing Polar Vortex (one literature search found the first reference to it was in 1853) will play a role in weather changes during the next week or so. In short, first it will become milder, but some places from Maryland to southern New England can get a little snow tomorrow. Saturday turns rainy with many I95 corridor sites reaching or passing 50 degrees, then it is a little chillier on Sunday, milder Monday, then colder later next week.
With a high pressure area off the East Coast and a cold front approaching from the west, a strong southerly flow of milder air will sweep northward.
The peak of the upcoming warmup should come on Monday for much of the Northeast. This map shows computer projections of temperatures at 4 p.m. ET Monday afternoon. Note the 80+ area in Pennsylvania. Cooler air will arrive by midweek.
As a storm slowly develops along the North Carolina coast, rain that was affecting areas of Michigan, Ohio and western Pennsylvania will tend to redevelop farther east and south. A flow from the east (see map) will keep it cool through tomorrow from New York City to Boston.
A sunny triangle is framed by a band of clouds moving southeast from Wisconsin, rain clouds over the Southeast and the western fringe of a North Atlantic storm.
Jumping ahead almost two weeks, map is the 500mb flow forecast for Mothers Day. If correct, the Middle and North Atlantic states would have a sunny day with afternoon temperatures as high as the 80s! Please remember the models do best in the short range.
This map shows the pressure pattern at 9 a.m. ET. As the high moves closer and the storm moves farther away tomorrow and Wednesday, there should be an increase in sunshine with milder afternoons.
This map is the GFS forecast for when weekend rain makes its most northward advance early Sunday. The model then shows drying from north to south during the day Sunday. The ensemble mean has the northern edge in the same area. Looking ahead, it appears that warmer air is coming when May starts.