What is the snow forecast this winter for the US?
The first week of December was not a preview of the entire winter season as forecasters say some twists and turns are expected in the coming months, including a potential visit from the polar vortex.
With meteorological winter here, AccuWeather’s long-range expert Paul Pastelok was live on the AccuWeather Network to discuss the winter forecast on Dec. 9.
Winter weather has arrived in the United States with teeth-chattering chill and even some snow descending across the Central and Eastern states while the West has been dry and mild. However, this is just the start of the long season, leaving many to wonder if the first week of December was a preview of what's to come.
Meteorological winter started on Dec. 1, but astronomical winter kicks off on the solstice, which takes place this year at 4:20 a.m. EST on Dec. 21.
What the rest of December has in store for the US
The weather pattern across the country will flip around the middle of December, opening the door for milder air to thaw areas of the central and eastern U.S. that had early-season snow. Meanwhile, rain and mountain snow will return to the West as storms from the Pacific roll through the region.
"We are favoring heavier rain and snow in the Pacific Northwest and occasionally Northern California," AccuWeather Long-Range Expert Paul Pastelok said.
Motorists negotiate the snow along I-80 during a storm Wednesday, Nov. 20, 2024, in Truckee, Calif. (AP Photo/Brooke Hess-Homeier)
A turbulent pattern may unfold during the week of Christmas, the start of Hanukkah and Kwanzaa, with several storms and the return of wintry conditions.
"It can turn colder for the Northeast, Great Lakes and Midwest but not as intense as the start of the month," Pastelok said. Folks who are looking forward to ice fishing this year should be cautious following the December chill as the ice may not yet be thick enough to support heavy weight.
The late-December weather will be great news for skiers who plan on hitting the slopes over the holidays, especially across the West, where more mountain snow is likely to pile up.
AccuWeather’s Ali Reid reports from Blue Mountain Resort in Palmerton, Pennsylvania, where they are preparing for the ski season. Snowmaking machines have been lined up to prepare for skiers.
January to send storms to the West, thaw in the East
The stormy end to 2024 will continue right into 2025 across the West, where "several powerful storms" are possible, according to Pastelok. The evolving pattern in January will also direct a few storms into Southern California, delivering some rain to Los Angeles and San Diego.
However, this does not mean rain will drench the entire western half of the country.
"Drought will continue across the interior Southwest and southwestern Plains as storms tend to stay north of this region for most of the winter," Pastelok added.
Farther east, the return of milder air will lead to a January thaw, which may help to ease heating bills at the expense of worsening conditions for ski resorts. When cold air does chill the Midwest and Appalachians, resorts may need to rely on making artificial snow to keep the slopes open.
This Nov. 15, 2012 file photo shows a snow gun making fresh snow at the Stowe resort in Stowe, Vt. The ground might be bare, but ski areas across the Northeast are making big investments in high-efficiency snowmaking so they can open more terrain earlier and longer. (AP Photo/Toby Talbot)
"Florida will be a nice vacation spot this winter with less-than-average rain and above-average temperatures," Pastelok said.
While it is expected to be warm along the Gulf coast and into the Tennessee Valley in late January, severe weather may occasionally rumble across the region, feeding off the mild air and moisture from the Gulf of Mexico.
AccuWeather's team of long-range forecasters is warning that the weather pattern could reverse once again around the same time the calendar flips from January to February.
February freeze? Snow, frigid air to return before winter's end
"The pattern gets interesting in late January and February," Pastelok said. "A storm track from the south-central Plains combining with a far northern storm track comes together in the Ohio and Tennessee valleys to produce some snow and ice from this region into the Northeast."
The uptick in snowstorms could make February the snowiest part of the winter for some areas of the East, especially where there was no lake-effect snow or snow squalls during the opening week of December.
"Then there is the polar vortex at risk in February, especially late, that could extend our winter this year into early spring," Pastelok added. If this unfolds, the polar vortex could unleash some of the coldest air of the season during the final month of meteorological winter. However, the month as a whole may not be quite as frigid in the East compared to December.
Across the West, the storm track in February may retreat farther north, focusing once again on the Pacific Northwest and northern Rocky Mountains. This is a shift from January when some storms were expected to reach Southern California.
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