Will it snow on Christmas? These cities have the best chance
The best chance of seeing snow on Christmas morning remains in the mountains and northern United States, but here are the most likely big cities that could see snow on Dec. 25.
If you're dreaming of a white Christmas, it's likely because most Christmas lore was invented in "The Little Ice Age" and passed down as memories through generations. Outside of oddball Christmas storms, however, chances of a white Christmas in the United States are becoming less and less likely.
AccuWeather will issue its white Christmas forecast in the middle of this month. However, this sleigh ride through past weather data can sprinkle some insight on the chances of a white Christmas in your neck of the woods.
What is the chance of a white Christmas where you live?
The map above shows the likelihood of a white Christmas based on NOAA's 1991-2020 historical data. Its study defines success as 1 inch or more of "snow cover" -- meaning snow on the ground on the morning of Dec. 25.
If you're a snow dreamer, the "lump of coal" news is that none of the 25 most-populated U.S. cities have much more than a one-in-three chance of seeing snow on Christmas morning, but here are the best bets.
Denver: 34% chance, 2022 most recent
What is the chance of a White Christmas in Denver?
The number one spot to see snow on Christmas morning in a major U.S. city is Denver, at a 34% historical chance, specifically the Stapleton Airport. White Christmases seem to come in groups in Denver. Only one year had bare ground on Christmas morning between 2006 and 2012, but between 2013 and 2021, there were only two white Christmases.
What was the most recent white Christmas in Denver?
Christmas morning 2022 had 2 inches of snow on the ground, though 2023 and 2024 were barren once again.
A lone pedestrian makes her way amid the lights of the 16th Street Mall in downtown Denver on Thursday, Dec. 27, 2007, as a second winter storm swept over the intermountain West in the past three days and left up to 10 inches of snow on the region. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski)
Chicago: 33.5% chance, 2022 most recent
What is the chance of a White Christmas in Chicago?
Chicago comes in at a close second with a 33.5 percent chance of seeing a white Christmas at O'Hare International Airport.
What was the most recent white Christmas in Chicago?
In 2000, those dreaming of the white stuff awoke on Christmas morning in Chicago to a foot of snow on the ground after an extremely cold and snowy December that featured 23 days with snow.
A woman walks along Chicago's Michigan Avenue as she braves the freezing weather ahead of the Christmas Holiday, on December 23, 2022. - A historic and brutal winter storm put some 240 million Americans under weather warnings Friday as the United States faced holiday travel chaos, with thousands of flights canceled and major highways closed. (Photo by KAMIL KRZACZYNSKI / AFP)
Since then, eight years have featured a white Christmas in the Windy City, most recently in 2022 with 1 inch on the ground and in 2017 with 2 inches. The most snow that ever fell on Christmas Day in Chicago was 5.1 inches in 1950.
Indianapolis: 26% chance, 2022 most recent
What is the chance of a White Christmas in Indianapolis?
The historical average chance of an inch of snow on Dec. 25 is around 26% for Indianapolis, so about once every 4 years.
What was the most recent white Christmas in Indianapolis?
Indianapolis had a white Christmas with at least 1 inch of snow on the ground in 2022, 2017 and 2010, when 5 inches of snow remained from an unusually cold December with 18 days measuring snow. The city hasn't had more than an inch of snow fall on Christmas Day since 2005.
Boston: 25% chance, 2017 most recent
What is the chance of a White Christmas in Boston?
You might expect Boston to be higher on the list, especially since Massachusetts is the birthplace of "Over the River and Through the Woods," a song about heavy snow in Boston on Thanksgiving during "The Little Ice Age. However, the coastal influence of the warmer Atlantic Ocean knocks a few points off for this city and it ends up with one quarter of years seeing a White Christmas.
Snow is piled up in front of the Green Monster during the setup of the 2010 Winter Classic at Fenway Park on December 26, 2009 in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Brian Babineau/NHLI via Getty Images)
What was the most recent white Christmas in Boston?
The record holder for snow on the ground in Boston is 11 inches in 1995. The most recent white Christmas as defined as 1 inch of snow on the ground was in 2009, when 4 inches remained from a snowstorm on Dec. 20. However, more than an inch of snow fell on Christmas Day most recently in Boston in 2017, when 2.9 inches was recorded, and before that, 3.3 inches fell on Dec. 25, 2002.
Columbus, Ohio: 22.6% chance, 2022 most recent
What is the chance of a White Christmas in Columbus?
The chance of a white Christmas in Columbus is less than 1 in 4, only 22.6 percent, but it's gotten lucky in recent years.
What was the most recent white Christmas in Columbus?
Columbus, Ohio, had a white Christmas with at least 1 inch of snow on the ground in 2017, 2020, and 2022, but heavier snows have become less common. The city hasn't had more than an inch of snowfall on Christmas Day since 1989.
New York City: 13.2% chance, 2009 most recent
What is the chance of a White Christmas in New York City?
New York's Central Park has only a 13.2 percent chance of getting a white Christmas, the least of the big cities we've listed. Because of the warm Atlantic ocean and lower latitude than Boston, it's harder to get snow on Christmas in the Big Apple.
What was the most recent white Christmas in New York City?
The heaviest snow observed on Christmas Day in New York City was 7 inches in 1909, but don't get too excited. The criteria of 1 or more inches of snow on the ground last happened more than 15 years ago, on Dec. 25, 2009, when residents of New York City woke up to 2 inches of snow left over from the 10.8 inches that fell on Dec. 19-20.
A person walks past the Christmas tree in Rockefeller Center during a snowstorm on December 16, 2020, in New York City. (Photo by Gary Hershorn/Getty Images)
The only other white Christmas in NYC since the turn of the century was 2002; however, flakes were observed falling on Dec. 25 in 2003 and 2017.
Did New York City have a white Christmas in 2020?
In 2020, 10.5 inches of snow fell a week before Christmas in New York City, providing wintry scenes for Christmas shoppers, but warmer weather melted it, and by Christmas afternoon, it was 61 degrees.
Less than a 10% chance in other major cities
Beyond those locations, only a handful of the top 25 cities have more than a 1 percent likelihood of a white Christmas. Philadelphia has a 9.3 percent chance, while Washington, D.C., (Dulles Airport) has a 7 percent chance. Oklahoma City stands at 5 percent, and Seattle comes in at a mere 3.7 percent.
A wintry mix of sleet and snow falls on the U.S. Capitol and its Christmas Tree on December 16, 2019, in Washington, DC. (Photo by Mark Wilson/Getty Images)
Other studies pinpoint the best small towns
Beyond the biggest cities in the U.S., where is there the best potential for a white Christmas?
Like many snowstorms, the probability of a white Christmas is elevation-dependent. If you live in the mountains of the West, Rockies or New England, you have much better odds that you'll wake up to snow-covered ground on Dec. 25. Add points if you have a ski slope named after your town. For example, Tahoe City, California, has an 83.4 percent chance of a white Christmas, while Winter Park, Aspen, Steamboat Springs, Breckenridge and Telluride, Colorado, range from 94 to 99 percent.
Snow with Christmas lights in the background in Pittsburgh, PA. (accuweather/Pittsburgh Weather Girl)
Most Maine locations and almost every station in Minnesota have more than a 50% chance of snow on the ground on Dec. 25. For example, Marquette, Michigan, is at 95.6 percent, and Duluth, Minnesota, is at 92.2 percent.
Mental Floss recently published their list of the best white Christmas cities, including a ranking for the number of Christmas-themed activities. Aspen, Colorado, was at the top of the list with a 99.9 percent chance of a white Christmas and 14 local Christmas activities. Their list included Syracuse, Rochester and Ithaca, New York, which range from a 51 to 56 percent chance of a white Christmas. Other towns that made the list were Green Bay, Wisconsin; Burlington, Vermont; Mason City, Iowa; and Concord, New Hampshire.
When was the last widespread U.S. white Christmas?
According to data from NOAA which goes back to 2010, the percent of the country experiencing a white Christmas varies greatly from year to year.
The most widespread U.S. white Christmas for the United States was in 2022, when 53 percent of the country was covered by snow, while the least snowy Dec. 25 -- by far -- was one year later when only 17.6 percent of the nation was covered by snow on Dec. 25, 2023. Other snowy Christmas Days included 51.1 percent in 2012 and 49 percent in 2017.
This animation shows the coverage of at least 1 inch or snow (white) or more (blue to purple) on Christmas Day 2006 through 2024.
Climate change is making Christmas more green
Unfortunately for those dreaming of a white Christmas, climate change is making the serene scene less likely.
Climate Central warns that the 12 days of Christmas are warming for 97 percent of U.S. weather stations since 1970, with an average increase of 4.9 degrees Fahrenheit, and that North American snow cover has decreased by 17 percent between 1973 and 2016.
