Boston winter forecast: Get ready for big snowstorms

Snowfall in Boston could be more than three times higher than the total accumulation measured last season as El Niño influences the weather patterns across the country.

The first snowflakes of the season have yet to fall in Boston, but residents may want to get their snow shovels out of storage and make sure that their snowblowers are in working order sooner rather than later as the city faces a much higher chance of snowstorms this year compared to last winter.

Meteorological winter kicks off as the calendar flips from November to December, but astronomical winter gets underway a few weeks later on the solstice. This year, the changing of the astronomical seasons takes place at 10:27 p.m. EST on Thursday, Dec. 21, the latest start to winter since 2019.

Last winter at a glance

•Boston has had its fair share of snowy winters, but last season was not one of them. The snowfall during the 2022-23 season amounted to only 12.4 inches, around 25% of the historical average. The highest single-day snowfall total was on Jan. 23 when 2.3 inches fell -- barely enough to warrant using a snow shovel.

•On Feb. 4, the temperature in Boston bottomed out at 10 degrees below zero Fahrenheit, the lowest the mercury has fallen since Jan. 15, 1957, when the temperature dipped down to 12 degrees below zero F. However, the winter as a whole was on the mild side, with temperatures from December through February averaging 4.3 degrees above the historical average.

More snow is in store this winter

•It may take some time for winter to get into gear, but as the season progresses, the odds of significant snowfall from nor'easters or bomb cyclones will increase in the Boston area and the rest of the Northeast.

•AccuWeather is predicting 38-44 inches of snow in Boston this winter, well above last season's snowfall total of 12.4 inches but still slightly below the historical average of 49.2 inches. Additionally, accumulating snowfall is likely to fall on 14-18 days this winter, below the historical average of 23 snow days during the winter season.

It may take only one storm: A single nor'easter could unload more snow in Boston than the entire snow accumulation last winter. The last time that a snowstorm delivered more than a foot of snow in a single day occurred on Jan. 29, 2022. During the historic storm, Boston picked up 23.6 inches, tying the city record for the highest single-day snow total since reliable record-keeping began in 1890.

More details about the winter forecast

•El Niño will have a major influence on the winter weather patterns across North America. El Niño occurs when the water near the equator of the eastern Pacific Ocean is warmer than the long-term average, which reshapes the jet stream patterns and ultimately the path that snowstorms can take as they traverse the United States. "Generally you get big huge monster storms, not the little nickel-and-dime storms in the East," Pastelok said about a typical El Niño winter. "That could be the case again this year in February and March."

•Skiers and snowboarders will likely have good conditions when visiting resorts this winter, especially during the second half of the winter as the snow potential increases. There will be opportunities for resorts to make artificial snow during the late fall and first half of the winter season. Still, there could be spells of mild weather that may disrupt snowmaking operations temporarily.

•The heating demand will likely be lower than the historical average, similar to last winter. Boston may still experience cold snaps, but temperatures as a whole throughout the winter are predicted to average 1 to 2 degrees above the historical average.

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