Why Hurricane Dorian won’t be like Florence, thankfully
A man tries to get his dog out of a flooded neighborhood in Lumberton, N.C., Monday, Sept. 17, 2018, in the aftermath of Hurricane Florence. (AP Photo/Gerry Broome, File)
Hurricane Dorian’s destructive path through the Bahamas and its foreboding trek up the southeastern coast of the United States hearkened memories of powerful Hurricane Matthew in 2016. For residents of the Carolinas, Dorian’s stalling over the Bahamas brought worries of the long, drenching rains and flooding from 2018’s Hurricane Florence.
That won’t be the case.
“This is a totally different situation,” said AccuWeather Senior Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski.
“It won’t be another Matthew situation,” said AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Alex Sosnowski.
“The biggest stalling issues that we’re going to see with Dorian already happened over the Bahamas,” said AccuWeather Meteorologist Courtney Spamer.
That’s good news for residents just a year after Hurricane Florence caused at least 51 deaths and an estimated $30 to $60 billion in damage, according to an AccuWeather analysis.
As Dorian moves northward, its greatest impacts will be felt across parts of the eastern Carolinas through Friday, according to AccuWeather meteorologists. But whereas, “Florence stalled for two or three days; in this case, they’re going to get the worst rains Thursday night and early Friday morning and that’s it,” said Kottlowski.
“So, it’ll be a 12- to 18-hour period where they’re going to get really good rains and that’s it,” he said. “It’s not going to be 36 or 48 hours of rain.”
Dorian will curve to the northeast along the Southeast coast of the U.S., AccuWeather meteorologists forecast. While remaining just offshore much of the time, a landfall is possible along the North Carolina coastline Thursday night or early Friday morning. The most likely landfall locations include Cape Fear, North Carolina, to Cape Lookout, North Carolina, and the Outer Banks as a Category 1 or 2 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.
Damaging winds, moderate flooding and storm surge are expected along the coast of the southeastern U.S. As a result, Dorian’s impact is projected to be a 2 on the AccuWeather RealImpact™ Scale for Hurricanes.
“A large part of the heaviest rain area from Dorian in the U.S. is in drought right now – they have not had much rainfall,” Kottlowski said.
Dorian’s forecast track brings the eye closer to the coast, leading to likely hurricane-force winds for most of the South Carolina coast through Thursday and all of the North Carolina coast later Thursday through Friday morning.
Interestingly, Hurricane Matthew's storm track back in 2016 was similar to the track of Hurricane Dorian, at least as far as Florida.
“There will be some issues there with water levels where the water backs up from the ocean and the tidal rivers occur at the same time the heavy rain is going on. But it’s not going to be to the extent of Matthew,” Sosnowski said.
Heavy rain is expected to spread across the eastern Carolinas and southeastern Virginia into the end of this week. Widespread rain amounts of 8 to 12 inches are possible, leading to the threat of significant flooding.
“A lot of people are comparing this to Matthew – rightly so for Florida. But when you get to the Carolinas, it’s a different story because this thing is going to curve and then start rocketing to the northeast,” Kottlowski said. “So, by Friday afternoon, things are going to change dramatically for this area. The weather is going to improve very quickly.”
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