Last week was the “warmest week of the year so far across the Corn Belt,” according to AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Jason Nicholls, bringing much-needed good news to U.S. farmers. “Things are looking up. As far as the next week or two, it looks like typical summer weather.”

However, farmers aren’t in the clear yet, and the proof came in yet another week of poor numbers in the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) Crop Progress regarding the condition of corn.

The rain and flooding that has affected Corn Belt farmers has been reflected in the percentage of corn considered “good” or “excellent” in 18 key corn-producing states. The first rating of the season was just 59% and it dropped to 56% in the second report. This week's corn condition was also 56%; the condition of corn rated “good” or “excellent” last year was 76%.

Similarly, the condition of soybeans remained the same as last week at 54% considered "good" or "excellent." That figure was at 71% last year.

"I think both crops have fewer acres planted than last year, especially with all the flooding on top of the nonstop rain," Justin Mensik, a corn and soybean farmer in Nebraska emailed AccuWeather.

States with particularly poor corn condition data this week include Missouri (29%), Ohio (31%), Indiana (39%), Michigan (40%) and Illinois (42%). Many of those same states had low percentages for the condition of soybeans, too, including Ohio (28%), Indiana (37%), Missouri (38%) and Michigan (43%).

Edwin Brummels, an Osmond, Nebraska, farmer who works for U.S. seed producer Pioneer, has seen the uncertain nature of the season firsthand.

“Within 50 miles of me there are areas that got 98-99% of corn planted,” Brummels said in an email to AccuWeather. “Others, like my immediate area, left 10% or more unplanted. I do think there is a strong push to corn, but when it gets to final yield, it’s not going to be there. A large amount of acres got planted later than we would normally plant soybeans, plus this scenario also has a high amount of corn on corn acres that normally don’t yield as well.”

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AccuWeather predicts a 2019 corn yield of 13.13 billion bushels, while the USDA on June 10 estimated a yield of 13.68 billion bushels. Both numbers are below corn production from 2018 (14.14) and 2017 (14.67).

For the 2019 soybean yield, AccuWeather forecasts 3.942 billion bushels, and the USDA estimates 4.15 billion bushels. Soybean production was higher in both 2018 (4.544) and 2017 (4.412).

On Friday, the USDA raised its estimates for corn-planted areas for all purposes to 91.7 million acres, which would be a 3% increase from last year. The USDA lowered its soybean-planted acreage estimate to 80 million acres, down 10% from last year.

“I think the [USDA] numbers are a little premature,” Brummels noted in his email to AccuWeather. “It makes no sense why USDA even releases a number at this time, considering all acres need to be certified by 7/15, which would give a more precise figure.”

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