Summer Forecast 2012

This year's summer forecast is already starting to show in the late spring here. One of the keys to this forecast is to remember that though there may be a few hot days or cold days, you have to look at the averages. I'm worried about how the heat may take shape here in the end of the period and how extreme it could get, but more on that later.

First, let's start at the overall look at the summer above. Notice how we are calling for some near-normal temperatures and also near- to even above-normal rainfall over western and northern Europe. This is a far cry from last year when we saw the extreme drought over much of Spain and Portugal and even pushing into France. Temperatures were also above normal in Spain, while much of central and eastern Europe was looking to see pretty normal weather with some more rainfall. That wet, cool weather was seen over Greece and into the rest of eastern Europe through the winter, but it looks like that will break here in the next few months, and already has. The mild temperatures over southeastern Europe will be very extreme, and in the heart of July and August, if there is any extreme heat that will be coming in, we could see temperatures near 40 degrees C, which for those overseas is over 100 degrees F. This, combined with the lack of precipitation in the summer and the wetness we saw this winter and early spring could lead to fire issues over much of Greece, through Ukraine and even into southern Poland.

Now for the temperatures.

We see no below-normal temperatures for the summer average over Europe. Notice this will likely be a warm summer over the entire continent. I am nervous that we just see the mild temperatures over the entire summer with no relief, and with humidity, we will not see temperatures over much of southern Europe drop much, leading to very mild nights that just allow the temperatures to continue to rise more and more in the sunshine. Much of central and even northern Europe do not have much in the way of air conditioning, and this could be a problem this summer. In the end of the summer, despite the entire continent being hot, we are worried that the mild air could push in from the Atlantic and bring some mild air that will be quite stagnant. And during this time is the Summer Olympics. Normal highs in England are only in the lower 20s C, or near 70 degrees F, so most locations will not see as much of an issue, but if temperatures soar into the middle 30s, London might not be prepared for the heat. If London climbs into the middle 30s, we will likely see highs near and even into the lower 40s in southern France, Spain and even Italy.

Again, a normal summer can still have extreme heat in it, and a warm summer can have near-normal temperatures sometimes too. I'm also worried about some of the temperatures over Greece and southeastern Europe. This heat will be quite a difference from the winter where temperatures were quite frigid. So, swinging from below normal for Greece for the winter to above normal for the summer will make for an extreme change in temperatures. And also note the economic concerns for Greece, and mild temperatures will make for some higher energy use, so this could turn into a story for the summer.

And the rainfall forecast is also looking to be feast or much more famine as the way the ridge of high pressure sets up.

Rainfall over central and into eastern Europe will end up being quite low as the ridge of high pressure will be centered over the area. This will lead to some welcome rainfall over France, northern Spain and western Germany along with some above-normal rainfall for much of northern Europe. I could see how the above-normal rainfall extends into the U.K. also, but with the mild temperatures there for the end of summer, I am not ready to call it wet at this time. However, the above- normal rainfall will be as storms come in from the Atlantic Ocean and bring their moisture northward as they get forced north from the high pressure area. But we could easily see some locations in southern Europe see rainfall of 10-20% of normal, which would amount to barely anything for the summer. If something like this happens, wildfires will not just happen, they could be very widespread.

So, that is about it for today. Let's just hope the sunny and comfortable temperatures try and dominate the forecast for Europe instead of the heat and even humidity.

Look global, Forecast local

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