Is more tropical activity to come in the Atlantic following newly formed Tropical Storm Chantal?
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While there are some other areas are being monitored in the Atlantic basin following Chantal, explosive tropical development seems unlikely through this week.
On Tuesday night, an area of low pressure located more than 450 miles southeast of Halifax, Nova Scotia, intensified into Tropical Storm Chantal.
Chantal will track to the east and then south-southeast across the open North Atlantic through this week. The storm will be guided around a broad area of high pressure centered over Bermuda.
While cruise and shipping interests will have to monitor the track of this storm, there is no threat to land.
AccuWeather meteorologists are monitoring a few other areas of potential development in the Atlantic basin over the coming days. However, wind shear appears as though it will inhibit rapid development in these areas.
Broad area of disturbed weather continues to percolate near Central America
Over the western Gulf of Mexico, showers and thunderstorms are forecast to gather later this week.
This is part of a broad area of disturbed weather centered over the western part of the Caribbean Sea and the eastern Pacific Ocean.
This image shows Central America with areas of drenching showers and gusty thunderstorms over the northwestern part of the Caribbean Sea and the eastern part of the Pacific Ocean on Tuesday, August 20, 2019. (NOAA/GOES Satellite)
AccuWeather meteorologists expect a significant tropical feature to be born in this mass of moisture, but on the eastern Pacific side of the land area rather than the Atlantic side.
A tropical disturbance, or tropical wave, that emerged from Africa earlier in August is forecast to move through this moisture area and turn northwestward into the western Gulf of Mexico this week.
"Development is unlikely, if at all, with this feature," according to AccuWeather Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski.
An uptick in shower and thunderstorm activity seems likely over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico at midweek.
That batch of enhanced showers and storms may then brush the coast of Texas and perhaps areas farther to the northeast along the Gulf coast later this week and this weekend.
The western Gulf will still be watched for any signs of development during that time. However, wind shear is projected to be a deterrent for tropical development in the region.
Only if the small pocket of wind shear were to drop off over the western Gulf might the door be opened for development.
During the first half of this week, the upper and northeastern Gulf coast will be the recipients of drenching downpours without any tropical disturbance nearby.
Those with beach or boating plans around the Gulf of Mexico should monitor the situation as there is a risk of gusty storms and the potential for rough surf and seas.
Might a tropical system form in the backyard of the East Coast?
Another area to watch will be off the Atlantic coast of the U.S. next week.
There is some indication that disturbance may evolve into a tropical system somewhere from Florida waters to the Carolina coast.
The time frame of this formation could be as early as Sunday or as late as next Friday.
Since the feature might be very close to the U.S. it is a concern that needs to be monitored.
Cape Verde disturbances weak for now, but for how long?
Thousands of miles farther east, tropical waves continue to move off the west coast of Africa.
This image, taken on Tuesday, August 20, 2019, shows a lack of organization to clouds over much of the Tropical Atlantic. Africa can be seen to the right of the image, while South America appears in the lower center with the Caribbean and part of the United States to the left. (NOAA / GOES Satellite)
"This is the time of the year to pay special attention to these tropical waves," Kottlowski said.
On average, the risk of tropical storm formation increases dramatically with Cabo Verde disturbances from now to the middle of September.
The Cabo Verde season is named for a group of islands just off the west coast of Africa.
"There are two new waves we will be keeping an eye on this week," Kottlowski said.
"While we don't foresee development over the next few days, we can't rule out something slowly taking shape over the central Atlantic beyond this week and beyond due to the overall decrease in wind shear, dry air and dust across the Atlantic basin."
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