Eastern US: Potential for another winter storm to return in mid-February

As dramatic swings in temperature continue across the United States during February, the potential for another major storm will increase in the East toward the middle of the month.

Through this week, the weather pattern will remain active in the eastern part of the nation in the wake of severe weather in the South and snow and ice storms in the Northeast.

This weekend will transition to the new week with another blizzard threatening to bring travel to a halt in New England.

The blizzard may not be the main weather event of the week.

Much colder air plunging southward on the back side of the blizzard may sag in long enough to set the stage for wintry precipitation later in the week.

"How extensive and how heavy the snow and ice is around the middle of the week will depend on whether two weak storms develop or one strong storm forms," according to AccuWeather Lead Long-Range Meteorologist Paul Pastelok.

Large southward dips and northward bulges will continue with the jet stream this month.

The jet stream is a high-speed river of air at the level in the atmosphere where jet cruise at. When the jet stream bulges northward, warm air is able to surge in. When the jet stream plunges southward, cold air can pour out of Canada.

The jet stream often forms a highway for storm systems to travel upon. When multiple branches of the jet stream are present, multiple storms can exist.

"The key to one major storm versus two more modest storms will be if the two branches of the jet stream come together or not," Pastelok said. "If they phase, a major storm will form with the potential to move northward along the Atlantic Seaboard with heavy precipitation, strong winds and associated major travel problems."

If the two branches of the jet stream remain separate, one moderate storm is likely to travel quickly across the Southern states and out to sea with rain and possible thunderstorms. Wet snow could fall on the northwestern flank of this storm in part of the South.

In that scenario, another storm will drop quickly southeastward across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast with light-to-moderate snow and slippery travel.

In the coming days, the details will be revealed as to whether one slow-moving major storm develops or multiple, less-intense storms sweep through.

"Some of our indicators are on board for a single major storm, but not all of them," Pastelok said. "It may not be until early this week before we can make a call one way or the other."

One aspect seems certain this far out.

This week, the same pattern will allow the jet stream to bulge well to the north and cause warmth to build over the western U.S. and western Canada.

As a consolation, waves of seasonable but relatively colder air will drop southward over eastern Canada and into the eastern U.S. through the middle part of the month.

Even if the storms fail to merge around Feb. 15 to 16, there will likely be another opportunity or two for a major storm in the Eastern states prior to the end of the month, especially during the period from Feb. 20 to 24.

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