Does the atmosphere have a 'memory' when it comes to tropical weather?
By
Zachary Rosenthal, AccuWeather staff writer
Updated Aug 12, 2021 9:43 AM EST
This GOES-16 GeoColor satellite image taken Friday, Oct. 9, 2020, at 10:00 a.m. EDT, and provided by NOAA, shows Hurricane Delta over the Gulf of Mexico. (NOAA via AP)
(NOAA via AP)
Sometimes it seems that the weather likes to repeat itself. Much like how lightning can (and does) strike the same place twice, astute observers might notice that tropical systems often take similar paths as they travel across the Atlantic Ocean.
In some circles, the term "atmospheric memory" is used, a phrase that suggests that the atmosphere somehow remembers the path of a storm system and that other storms will follow it, as if some cosmic intelligence is involved. And after a cursory look at recent storm tracks, you might buy into the theory.
According to AccuWeather forecasters, the latest entrant to stir things up in the Atlantic basin this summer appears likely to follow an uncannily similar path to Elsa, which made landfall on northern Florida's gulf coast in early July.
During the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season, residents of Louisiana may have felt like the atmosphere had it out for them after four named storms made landfall there: Tropical Storm Cristobal, Hurricane Laura, Hurricane Delta and Hurricane Zeta. Another named storm, Hurricane Marco, stalled off the Louisiana coast, never quite making landfall before it dissipated.
A comparison of Elsa's Eye Path® (top) as it approached the Lesser Antilles and Potential Tropical Cyclone Six's Eye Path® (bottom).
Hurricanes Laura and Delta, specifically, walloped the exact same part of the state as strong hurricanes. Laura was a powerful Category 4 storm when it made landfall in southwestern Louisiana on Aug. 27, while Delta was a strong Category 2 storm when it made landfall on Oct. 9.
So, all of that said, is there such a thing as atmospheric memory? According to AccuWeather's Lead Hurricane Forecaster Dan Kottlowski, the answer is a firm no.
Hurricane Laura and Hurricane Delta both made landfall south of Lake Charles, Louisiana.
AccuWeather
"All it refers to is that often the large-scale weather pattern often does not change much during the middle of the warm season," Kottlowksi explained. "This means the steering flow remains the same or nearly the same for several weeks."
When the steering flow does not change, storms will tend to follow the same general paths. When it comes to Elsa, Fred, and the next storm, the Bermuda Azores high has barely moved, which is a critical steering force in the Atlantic basin.
"Any feature that happens to move within this flow pattern will track in a similar way as the previous developed storm system," Kottlowski said.
AccuWeather Senior Weather Editor and Meteorologist Jesse Ferrell added that the stability of these high-pressure regimes actually helps tropical forecasters figure out where storms will track.
"Estimating where the storm corridors will be, based on the long-range forecast position of high-pressure systems, is one of the tools we use to seasonally forecast hurricanes," Ferrell said.
AccuWeather forecasters take into account the position of high-pressure systems when they are determining the track that a storm will take, which is shown in AccuWeather's Forecast Eye Path®.
The Eye Path® shows a detailed visualization of where a tropical system is forecast to track, along with descriptive impacts for locations that are expected to be impacted. For the first time ever, users on the AccuWeather app on iOS and Android can access the new AccuWeather Hurricane Tracker, which includes Eye Path® technology.
Keep checking back on AccuWeather.com and stay tuned to the AccuWeather Network on DirecTV, Frontier, Spectrum, FuboTV, Philo, and Verizon Fios.
Report a Typo
News / Weather News
Does the atmosphere have a 'memory' when it comes to tropical weather?
By Zachary Rosenthal, AccuWeather staff writer
Updated Aug 12, 2021 9:43 AM EST
This GOES-16 GeoColor satellite image taken Friday, Oct. 9, 2020, at 10:00 a.m. EDT, and provided by NOAA, shows Hurricane Delta over the Gulf of Mexico. (NOAA via AP)
Sometimes it seems that the weather likes to repeat itself. Much like how lightning can (and does) strike the same place twice, astute observers might notice that tropical systems often take similar paths as they travel across the Atlantic Ocean.
In some circles, the term "atmospheric memory" is used, a phrase that suggests that the atmosphere somehow remembers the path of a storm system and that other storms will follow it, as if some cosmic intelligence is involved. And after a cursory look at recent storm tracks, you might buy into the theory.
According to AccuWeather forecasters, the latest entrant to stir things up in the Atlantic basin this summer appears likely to follow an uncannily similar path to Elsa, which made landfall on northern Florida's gulf coast in early July.
During the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season, residents of Louisiana may have felt like the atmosphere had it out for them after four named storms made landfall there: Tropical Storm Cristobal, Hurricane Laura, Hurricane Delta and Hurricane Zeta. Another named storm, Hurricane Marco, stalled off the Louisiana coast, never quite making landfall before it dissipated.
A comparison of Elsa's Eye Path® (top) as it approached the Lesser Antilles and Potential Tropical Cyclone Six's Eye Path® (bottom).
Hurricanes Laura and Delta, specifically, walloped the exact same part of the state as strong hurricanes. Laura was a powerful Category 4 storm when it made landfall in southwestern Louisiana on Aug. 27, while Delta was a strong Category 2 storm when it made landfall on Oct. 9.
So, all of that said, is there such a thing as atmospheric memory? According to AccuWeather's Lead Hurricane Forecaster Dan Kottlowski, the answer is a firm no.
Hurricane Laura and Hurricane Delta both made landfall south of Lake Charles, Louisiana.
"All it refers to is that often the large-scale weather pattern often does not change much during the middle of the warm season," Kottlowksi explained. "This means the steering flow remains the same or nearly the same for several weeks."
When the steering flow does not change, storms will tend to follow the same general paths. When it comes to Elsa, Fred, and the next storm, the Bermuda Azores high has barely moved, which is a critical steering force in the Atlantic basin.
"Any feature that happens to move within this flow pattern will track in a similar way as the previous developed storm system," Kottlowski said.
AccuWeather Senior Weather Editor and Meteorologist Jesse Ferrell added that the stability of these high-pressure regimes actually helps tropical forecasters figure out where storms will track.
"Estimating where the storm corridors will be, based on the long-range forecast position of high-pressure systems, is one of the tools we use to seasonally forecast hurricanes," Ferrell said.
AccuWeather forecasters take into account the position of high-pressure systems when they are determining the track that a storm will take, which is shown in AccuWeather's Forecast Eye Path®.
The Eye Path® shows a detailed visualization of where a tropical system is forecast to track, along with descriptive impacts for locations that are expected to be impacted. For the first time ever, users on the AccuWeather app on iOS and Android can access the new AccuWeather Hurricane Tracker, which includes Eye Path® technology.
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Keep checking back on AccuWeather.com and stay tuned to the AccuWeather Network on DirecTV, Frontier, Spectrum, FuboTV, Philo, and Verizon Fios.
Report a Typo