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Atmospheric river to take a break following enhanced California mudslide risk

By Alex Sosnowski, AccuWeather senior meteorologist

Published Mar 21, 2018 6:40 PM EDT | Updated Jul 1, 2019 5:12 PM EDT

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Following an atmospheric river that triggered heavy rain in California this past week, a drying trend will begin this weekend and take hold next week.

An atmospheric river is a term for a series of storms that focus moisture from the Pacific Ocean into a narrow zone that results in heavy, prolonged rainfall.

The storms this past week boosted San Francisco, Fresno and Los Angeles above-normal in terms of rainfall for the month and even triggered flooding and mud flows in some areas.

Static AP Erosion Cali March 22

Rain caused a hillside to collapse along La Tuna Canyon Road in the Los Angeles section of La Tuna Canyon on Thursday, March 22, 2018. (AP Photo/Richard Vogel)

AP

Cleanup crews will be looking for a break of dry weather once again.

The fire hose of moisture from the Pacific Ocean has turned off.

However, as a less potent storm over the northern Pacific rotates southward, cool air, clouds and sporadic showers with lowering snow levels will settle in this weekend.

Static Cool Showery Weekend Cali

Most of the shower activity is expected to occur over Northern and Central California, where a couple of thunderstorms with hail may also occur.

"The southward plunge of the northern Pacific storm should have enough moisture to bring an additional moderate snowfall over most of the ski resorts in the Sierra Nevada," according to AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Ken Clark.

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"Southern California is likely to be mainly dry this weekend," Clark said.

Temperatures are likely to average near to slightly below normal early next week but a warming trend is likely later in the week, thanks to a string of sunny days and a northward bulge in the jet stream.

Static ENW California Drying

In terms of any additional storms this spring, it is still too early to write off the potential for a couple more rounds of significant rain and high-country snow, according to AccuWeather Lead Long-Range Meteorologist Paul Pastelok.

"There will be a greater chance of a couple more major storms that affect the Northwest, including part of Northern California during April," Pastelok said. "But there may still be a storm that travels far enough to the south to spin some moisture in from the Pacific in Southern California over the next several weeks."

However, the odds of a return of the atmospheric river or a drought-busting storm diminish during April based on climatology.

On average, Downtown Los Angeles receives just under an inch of rain during April, compared to about 2.50 inches during March. This average rainfall diminishes to about one-quarter of an inch during May.

From Nov. 1, 2017, to March 20, 2018, Downtown Los Angeles received only about 25 percent of its normal rainfall of about 12 inches.

Much of California and bordering states are experiencing conditions ranging from abnormally dry to extreme drought.

Much more rain and mountain snow are needed to avoid difficult conditions from building drought as 2018 progresses.

This even though storms over the past few weeks have nearly doubled the water content of the snow in the high country of the Sierra Nevada since the middle of February, according to the California Department of Water Resources.

As of March 21, the water equivalent of the existing snow cover ranged from 42 to 57 percent of average or from 11.5 inches to 16.4 inches in the Sierra Nevada.

It is the gradual meltdown of the snowcover in the Sierra Nevada during the spring and summer that helps to replenish streams and reservoirs for the balance of the year.

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