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As one of America’s famous groundhogs declared last week: a slow transition to spring is in store for most of the United States this year.
Much of the northern tier of the country will endure rounds of cold and snow into March and April before springlike air creeps in.
Meanwhile, the southern half of the country will heat up with California and parts of the Southeast heading toward drought conditions.
Chill to hang on in Northeast, mid-Atlantic and Midwest states
A slow transition to mild weather is in store for the mid-Atlantic, Northeast and Midwest this year.
Mixed rain and snow events for the Northeast and mid-Atlantic will take place into April as chilly air remains entrenched across the regions.
In the Midwest, cities such as Minneapolis, Chicago and Milwaukee could receive snow as late as the end of April.
“If it does warm up, it won’t last for a long duration. I think [warmth] comes in spurts throughout March, April and May,” AccuWeather Expert Long-Range Forecast Paul Pastelok said.
While warm spells here and there may make you want to get started on your garden, Pastelok warns it’s best to hold off.
“Be careful about putting things in the ground too fast because April could bring some surprises,” he said.
While the chilly weather may be a disappointment to some, it will make spring severe weather a “no-show” this year, according to Pastelok.
Severe weather to kick off early in Southeast, Tennessee Valley, Gulf Coast
While severe weather may dodge areas farther north, it will waste no time heating up in the Southeast, Gulf Coast and Tennessee Valley.
Forecasters are calling for two or three big severe events as early as March.
Building warmth and a lack of precipitation in Florida during April may lead to drought conditions later in the season. However, the dry pattern could be turned on its head come May, when an early tropical feature threatens to impact the region.
This could cause the Sunshine State to rapidly transition from dry to flooded.
“Over the last three years, we have seen early tropical development in the Atlantic basin and I do feel there’s going to be something popping up,” Pastelok said.
“The area to watch is the eastern Gulf and the southwest Atlantic. I think that area is a little more susceptible this year,” he said.
Severe weather will make a comeback for these regions later in the season, stretching from St. Louis, Missouri, down to Little Rock, Arkansas; Memphis, Tennessee, and Louisville, Mississippi.
Temperatures to ride roller coaster in central and northern Plains
Temperatures will ride a roller coaster in the central and northern Plains, with short-lived warmups arriving at times.
“In April, we could see a pretty good bubble burst in the central Plains states where temperatures are going to take off for a while,” Pastelok said. However, they’re likely to reverse for a time in May.
Melting snow could cause flooding at times, especially along the Mississippi River.
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Warmth to dominate southern Plains, Southwest and California
While the northern and central Plains contend with surges of cold air, a mid-spring warmup will grace the southern Plains.
Severe storms will threaten to ignite from time to time in places like Tulsa, Oklahoma; and Houston and Austin, Texas.
In the Southwest, residents may need to crank up the air conditioning early on, as the region basks in early summerlike heat.
The mercury could soar into the 90s F quite quickly, Pastelok said.
Along with the heat, however, will come dryness. This may translate to worsening drought conditions across Arizona, New Mexico and Southern California, along with an increased risk for wildfires.
Wet and cool weather to prevail in Northwest, Rockies
The Northwest and Rockies will have a slow start to spring, with March temperatures feeling more like February on most days.
The wet and cool pattern will persist for the Northwest throughout April. In the mountains, snow could hang on as late as May.
“With this late snowpack and the warmup that takes place late spring and early summer, we could have some flooding in [the region’s] rivers,” Pastelok said.
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