Atlantic Basin remains relatively quiet
Satellite, satellite-derived and surface data all show no signs of any organized tropical features across the Atlantic Basin at this time. We are monitoring only two weak tropical waves across the tropical North Atlantic. These waves are located along 23 west longitude south of 20 north latitude and along 50 west longitude south of 16 north latitude. Both waves are moving west at a normal pace of 5-6 degrees longitude per day.
The large Azores Bermuda surface high pressure area continues to weaken, creating more favorable surface conditions for development. However, we continue to analyze a large area of African dust over the eastern and central tropical North Atlantic. We also see a smaller area of African dust covering parts of the southwest Gulf of Mexico and northwest Caribbean. As we have stated in previous discussions the presence of African dust limits convective shower and thunderstorm development which in turn suppresses tropical development. Computer simulations suggest this large area of dust over the southern North Atlantic will dominate the region through at least the next five days.
Long-range computer forecasts show no support for tropical development through the next seven days. A combination of dry air and dust plus lingering areas of strong vertical wind shear will continue to prevent tropical development through at least the middle of next week.
