2017 Europe autumn forecast: Fierce windstorms to blast UK; Rain to ease drought in Italy and the Balkans
By Eric Leister, AccuWeather senior meteorologist
August 16, 2017, 7:35:07 AM EDT
The arrival of autumn will bring significant changes to the weather across much of Europe.
Following a hot and dry summer, beneficial rain will fall across parts of Italy and the Balkans, bringing relief from drought and wildfires.
A dry start to the season will be a welcome change from the United Kingdom to Germany, but storminess will increase later in the season.
Late-season cold shots will send temperatures tumbling and bring the threat for snowfall to eastern Europe.
Welcome dry spells to unfold from France to Poland
Areas from France to Poland will welcome spells of dry weather to start autumn following a wet summer and significant flooding.
Extended periods of dry weather are forecast during the month of September across France, Germany and Poland, bringing more sunshine than many locations experienced during the middle of summer.
Paired with these conditions, temperatures will soar above normal during much of September.
“The change to drier weather will not last throughout the season, as a several week stretch of wet weather returns to eastern France, Germany and western Poland in October,” AccuWeather Meteorologist Tyler Roys said.
Rain gear will be needed by those heading to Oktoberfest, as there will be a high chance for rain to once again plague the famous festival.
Following a wet October, near- to slightly below-normal rainfall is predicted during November.
A glancing blow from polar air will result in some noticeably cold days throughout the month from eastern Germany into Poland. It will also bring the first threat for snowfall before the month’s end.
Dry start across the United Kingdom to fade as powerful storms return
Despite a dry start to the season across the British Isles, summerlike warmth will continue to elude Ireland and the United Kingdom throughout the fall.
The dry start to the season will be welcomed by many following a wetter-than-normal summer that washed out weekend and holiday plans.
Warmth will be limited to September as temperatures occasionally reach 24 C (75 F) in southern England.
“There will be a significant increase in the risk of windstorms across the British Isles from late October into November,” Roys said. “Northern Ireland and Scotland will face the greatest risk for significant impacts.”
At least one post-tropical system is predicted to impact the Isles during this time, presenting a high risk for flooding and damaging winds.
An early start to the windstorm season is also expected which will result in multiple threats from late October through November in addition to any tropical systems.
Beneficial rain to arrive across Italy and Balkan Peninsula
The Iberian Peninsula will continue to endure drought conditions; however, relief will arrive for Italy and the Balkans following a hot and dry September.
Infrequent rainfall during the autumn will continue drought conditions across Portugal and Spain.
Another impact of the continued dry weather will be a heightened risk for wildfires throughout September before cooler and more moist air arrives later in the season.
Whether any countries will experience impacts of potential post-tropical systems remains unclear. However, at this time, it appears most likely that significant impacts would be felt by France and the British Isles.
The drought conditions currently plaguing parts of Italy and the Balkans will continue into early autumn as above-normal temperatures and minimal rainfall are expected.
“Drought relief will come in October and November as rainfall increases across both Italy and the Balkans,” Roys said.
This will be particularly beneficial for farmers that have endured crop-damaging freezes in the spring followed by brutal heatwaves in the summer.
“Relief will not come for southern Italy and Greece where unseasonable warmth and continued below-normal rainfall are expected,” Roys added.
Warmth to prevail across eastern Europe into October before biting cold shots invade late
A warm start to autumn is expected from the Baltic states into Ukraine.
“Drier-than-normal weather will accompany the unseasonable warmth during September and October,” Roys said.
A big change in the weather pattern is predicted in November as cold fronts begin to dive farther south. This will send biting cold from the Baltic states to Ukraine.
This cold air will also bring the risk for a late-season snowstorm in Ukraine and Belarus.
Content contributed by AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Alan Reppert.
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