Warmer days are coming soon, but severe weather and polar vortex lurk
The warmest weather since autumn is likely in parts of the central and eastern U.S. in the coming days, but colder air, courtesy of the polar vortex, may pay a visit by mid-March.
AccuWeather’s Joe Lundberg looks ahead to next week’s weather for the U.S., which includes a late-week fire threat in the South Central states, snow in the northern Plains and storms in the South.
Following more wintry weather from storms this weekend in the Midwest and Northeast, warmth will build and expand over the central and eastern United States this week. However, Accuweather's Long-Range Team continues to monitor the pent-up polar vortex, and there are signs of some changes coming at the middle of the month.
First, the good news for warm weather and springtime fans
For those waiting to get out on the golf courses, bike paths and sports courts, the upcoming pattern will bring plenty of opportunities. And, with the resumption of daylight saving time this weekend, the extra hour of sunlight in the evenings will offer more time to get outside and enjoy after work or school.
After a couple of storms produced areas of snow into the weekend from parts of the North Central states to the Northeast, cold air will retreat northward, and warmer air over the South Central states will expand considerably.
Factoring in March sunshine, in places winds don't kick up, the midday and afternoon hours can be delightfully warm over vast areas of the Plains, Mississippi Valley and the East this week.
Any breeze off chilly bays, lakes or large rivers can negate some of the warmth. Along the northern tier where deep snow remains, much of the sun's energy will be used to melt some of the snow cover rather than warming the air.
Away from these chilly objects, temperatures will most likely soar to their highest levels since last autumn in many cases. Highs are forecast to be in the 50s and 60s much of this week in Chicago, with the same in store for Detroit during the early and middle part of the week. Following a high near 50 in New York City on Sunday, temperatures are projected to jump into the 60s early this week.
Even in New England, where spring is often delayed by weeks and months due to the cold Atlantic to the south and east and the Great Lakes to the west, temperatures should reach the historical average and above most days. For example, highs in Boston will trend upward and temperatures should reach the 50s F by early this week. The historical average high is in the mid-40s.
The warmer weather will lead to thawing ice on lakes and ponds and could lead to ice jams on some of the rivers over the northern tier.
Warmer weather to bring some trouble
AccuWeather meteorologists are looking at two rounds of severe weather over the next seven to 10 days for the Southern and Central states.
One round will tend to be limited to a section of the Southeast on Sunday. Severe weather will bring a risk for damaging wind gusts and flash flooding into Sunday night across northern Florida, far southern Alabama and southern Georgia. A couple of tornadoes cannot be ruled out.
As a large storm moves out from the Rockies later this week, a significant outbreak of severe weather could unfold across portions of the Great Plains and the Mississippi Valley.
The same storm will likely bring snow on its colder northwestern flank, which could include areas from Minneapolis to near Denver.
Gusty winds are likely throughout the storm's circulation. Where the landscape is dry, such as over the southern High Plains, the risk of wildfires will again increase.
Polar vortex may have something to say mid-month
AccuWeather's Long-Range Team of meteorologists, led by Expert Meteorologist Paul Pastelok, closely monitors the activity associated with the polar vortex year-round. When the polar vortex remains strong, frigid air is usually locked up near the Arctic Circle.
When the polar vortex weakens or becomes distorted, it can send frigid air southward into the United States.
"There has been some slight stretching of the polar vortex this winter as evidenced by some of the Arctic outbreaks, but the polar storm located in the upper part of the atmosphere has remained largely intact this winter into this week," Pastelok said. "We are now seeing strong signals that the polar vortex may weaken to the point where one or more major southward discharges of cold air can occur in North America and Europe starting around the middle of March."
The magnitude, direction (eastern or western North America) and extent of the cold waves may not be determined until the polar vortex breakdown occurs.
"The springtime also poses a challenge with cold air driven by polar vortex activity as you have the warming effects of the sun and shifting weather patterns to factor in," Pastelok said.
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