Temperature turnaround forecast for chilly Midwest, Northeast
March-like cold has allowed snow to fall in parts of the Midwest and Northeast this week, but a shift in the weather pattern will spur a warmup and allow temperatures to return to levels more typical of May.
Temperatures will continue to climb across the Midwest and Northeast. By the end of the weekend, some locations might record temperatures more typical of late May.
The clock is ticking on the pattern responsible for unseasonably chilly air, chaotic weather conditions and even snow in parts of the Midwest and Northeast. AccuWeather meteorologists say that warmer air will spread from west to east and deliver temperatures more typical of early May into this weekend.
A highly convoluted jet stream pattern, known as an Omega block, has been responsible for locking in cold and unsettled conditions in the Midwest and Northeast since the start of the week while warm and dry conditions have been building farther to the west over the Plains and eastern slopes of the Rockies.
"As this Omega block breaks down, the chill in the Midwest and cold showers and snow in the Northeast will ease and some moisture will gradually return to the Plains," AccuWeather Chief On-Air Meteorologist Bernie Rayno said. Weather systems will resume more of a typical west-to-east motion once the block dissolves in the coming days.
When compared to early morning temperatures in the 40s, 30s and even the 20s early this week, a rebound of 20-30 degrees Fahrenheit will be common in the Midwest and Northeast and some locations may bounce back by as much as 40 degrees.
The temperature turnaround began on Wednesday in portions of the Midwest and will slowly unfold farther to the east later this week and this weekend. While few record-high temperatures are likely to be challenged or broken, conditions may feel a bit more like late May following the chilly start to the week.
For example, in Chicago, temperatures on Tuesday were no better than the mid-50s F with AccuWeather RealFeel® Temperatures in the 30s at times. On Wednesday, late-day temperatures rose slightly in the city and reached 59 F. The rebound was very apparent on Thursday when the mercury soared to 72 degrees.
Each day through the weekend, highs will remain within a few degrees of 70, which is 5–8 degrees above the historical average for the Windy City. RealFeel temperatures will likely rebound to well into the 70s, which is more typical of late May.
In St. Louis, following a little setback due to rain on Friday, temperatures will rebound to near 80 on Saturday and could approach the 90-degree mark on Sunday. If temperatures reach the upper 80s on Sunday in the Gateway to the West, it will be the warmest day since Sept. 21, when temperatures hit the upper 90s.
"In the Northeast, highs in the 40s and 50s that have been felt for much of the week will be swapped out for highs in the 60s and 70s in many areas by the weekend," AccuWeather Long-Range Meteorologist Brandon Buckingham said.
High temperatures on both days of the weekend will be close to 70 in New York City following highs in the mid-50s there from Tuesday to Thursday. The position of high pressure over the interior Northeast, as opposed to eastern New England, may keep chilly coastal sea breezes highly localized. When high pressure hangs along the New England coast, which is common in the spring, the door is opened for widespread breezes to kick in from the Atlantic.
A storm from the western U.S. will slowly move eastward late this week and weekend.
"As this storm moves, the stage will likely be set across the Plains for daily rounds of thunderstorm activity stretching from Texas to as far north as the Dakotas as a flow of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico resumes," Buckingham said. This will be very beneficial when it comes to chipping away at the long-standing drought across portions of the High Plains, he added.
The influx of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico will help to boost humidity levels, and that will make it feel warmer in the Central states this weekend. Even though an abundance of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico is not likely in the Northeast, intense sunshine will help raise air temperatures. RealFeel temperatures may top 80 F in parts of the Ohio Valley, Great Lakes and the mid-Atlantic.
More persistent spring warmth is expected across the Midwest and Northeast during the middle of May, according to Buckingham. That said, there will still be some dips in the jet stream that bring cool air, especially in parts of the Northeast, but not to the extreme of recent weeks.
In addition to the warmth, the weather pattern is also expected to become more conducive for thunderstorm activity on a regular basis, especially over the Central states. The rainfall could further ease the dry conditions over the Plains moving forward.
How much moisture makes its way to the northern tier of the Central states will be monitored for potential impact on flooding in the region.
Mississippi River flooding in Iowa, Illinois despite local dryness
Portions of the central Plains and Ohio Valley could use a reasonable amount of moisture as the planting season ramps up. The topsoil has become quite dry in the region due to storms tracking mainly well to the north and to the south during April.
A fierce dust storm led to a deadly pileup on Interstate 55, near Springfield, Illinois, on Monday.
Meanwhile, less than 100 miles to the west of where the accident occurred, major flooding was ongoing along the Mississippi River along the Iowa-Illinois border. The flooding was produced by the melting of excessive winter snow in early April over the upper watershed of the Mississippi and not from recent rainfall in Iowa or Illinois. Many points along the Mississippi River in Iowa and Illinois will remain above flood stage through the middle of May.
Some episodes of rain and thunderstorms will increase across this zone into next week, but it not anticipated to add to high water levels on the Mississippi River. Some quick rises on small streams and secondary rivers may unfold, where downpours repeat at the local level.
Because of drier conditions over the middle portion of the Mississippi Valley and low water levels along the Missouri River as well as other major tributaries of the Mississippi in the states of Iowa, Illinois and areas farther south, flooding is not anticipated in St. Louis. A surge of water will move southward through the region, but water levels on the vital water highway are expected to remain well below the minor flood stage at the major port city.
Want next-level safety, ad-free? Unlock advanced, hyperlocal severe weather alerts when you subscribe to Premium+ on the AccuWeather app. AccuWeather Alerts™ are prompted by our expert meteorologists who monitor and analyze dangerous weather risks 24/7 to keep you and your family safer.
Report a Typo
