Record-challenging warmup to follow soggy start to the weekend in the East
An uneven warmup is on the way to the East through the first full week of the month, which can challenge records and, in some areas, herald the arrival of leaves and flowers.
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Easterners might have to be forgiven for thinking that March was skipped over and the calendar actually flipped to April, as rain showers to start the weekend in the region will give way to another stretch of warm weather during the new week.
AccuWeather meteorologists are warning that the warmup will be uneven this week, as clouds and moisture could linger for several days in some of the big Northeast cities and near the Atlantic coast.
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For many across the interior, the temperatures forecast this week will represent the warmest air so far this season. With the unseasonable warmth coming in the wake of fresh rain, this could lead to early blooming of some flowers and budding of leaves on trees in parts of the region, despite it only being early March.
For the warmth to return, first, some rain has to fall in the mid-Atlantic and the Northeast. Rain tracked away from the New England coast on Sunday morning, ushering in warmer weather for most.
April and May-like warmth will follow the rain
While astronomical spring is still a few weeks away, Friday marked the start of meteorological spring, the three months of the year when temperatures ramp up quickest in the run-up to summer. For millions in the central and eastern portions of the country, no matter which definition of the season you prefer, a spring fever will break out into the first full week of March.
Expanding from the Plains and Midwest, and arriving in the interior of the East following the rain, temperatures soared into the 60s and 70s from the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys through the weekend to as far north and east as cities such as Buffalo and Syracuse, New York, early in the week.
Not only will these temperatures be as much as 20-30 degrees above the historical average for early March, they will challenge dozens of long-standing record highs. Pittsburgh is among the cities that could approach a record high this week (74 on Monday, set in 1992) amid a run of summerlike weather.
Meanwhile, some coastal northeasterners may become jealous of their counterparts farther west, as clouds and moisture lingering into the new week will spoil the warmup there.
"With little wind expected in the wake of the early weekend rainstorm, the southwestern flow of warmer air in the Northeast could be interrupted," said AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Alex Sosnowski. "Because of that, low clouds may be slow to break in parts of the East, delaying the warming."
The prolonged cloudiness will primarily be an issue from the Delmarva north through the Delaware Valley, Jersey Shore, New York City Tri-State area and throughout New England. Temperatures in the region, while still on the mild side for early March, can be as much as 10-15 degrees lower through at least Tuesday than they otherwise would be with more sunshine.
In addition, a storm moving northeastward along the mid-Atlantic coast and into New England late Monday through Tuesday will bring another batch of soaking rain to the region, further keeping temperatures in check.
Could there be May flowers in March?
The unseasonable warmth seen during the heart of the winter from the nation's midsection to the East, followed by this expected warm start to March, will have agricultural and floral consequences.
The National Phenology Network, which tracks when and where small leaves start appearing on trees, and when perennial flowers such as crocuses and tulips start blooming, is reporting that spring has already arrived across a broad swath of the nation. As of Mar. 1, the leading edge of first leaves extended from northern Missouri to southern Ohio and east to the mid-Atlantic coast, about two to three weeks ahead of schedule.
This map shows the status of the arrival of the first small leaves on trees across the country, as of Friday, Mar. 1. Red colors indicate an earlier-than-average arrival of "leafing," while the blue colors indicate a later-than-average arrival. (National Phenology Network)
With the prolonged warmup expected to last through much of the new week, along with temperatures staying above freezing at night, that line of spring blooming should slowly creep north, enveloping more of the Ohio Valley and lower elevations east of the Appalachians in the mid-Atlantic. Indianapolis; Columbus, Ohio; Morgantown, West Virginia; Dover, Delaware; and Philadelphia are among the cities that can see green vegetation by mid-March.
The consequences of this earlier start to spring would be an earlier-than-average pollen season, as well as the appearance of cherry blossoms in Washington, D.C., that might precede the annual festival that begins this year on Mar. 20.
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