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Soaking storm to elevate flood risk in midwestern US through Monday

By Mary Gilbert, AccuWeather meteorologist

Published May 17, 2020 10:59 AM EDT

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A dramatic mesocyclone crossed the Hudson River, close to Poughkeepsie, New York, on May 15. The area was under a tornado watch.

Just days after nearly a month's worth of rain fell over the course of a few hours across parts of the Midwest, the region is enduring another soaking storm through Monday.

"A widespread storm is bringing heavy rain across much of the Midwest as it slowly moves eastward," AccuWeather Meteorologist Brett Edwards said.

The storm had already produced 1-2 inches of rainfall and incidents of localized flooding across portions of the Mississippi Valley by Sunday morning, with soaking rain continuing to fall.

A wide swath of rain is seen soaking the central U.S. on radar during Sunday evening, May 17, 2020. (AccuWeather)

This storm is likely to produce widespread flash flooding conditions, mainly for the Great Lakes and portions of the Ohio Valley.

The heavy rain threat will increase as the storm becomes better organized and eventually slows down and stalls for a time.

During the day on Sunday, tornadoes were reported in Macon, Grundy, and La Salle counties in Illinois and Cameron County in Louisiana, according to the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center.

Chicago; Milwaukee, Wisconsin; Grand Rapids, Michigan; and South Bend, Indiana, were all under the greatest threat for flash flooding into Sunday evening.

Heavy rain has proved to be particularly challenging for Chicago, which encountered more than its fair share of flash flooding issues late last week. On Thursday, Chicago O'Hare International Airport recorded 3.53 inches of rain, most of which fell over the span of a few hours. Thursday's rain was just 0.15 of an inch shy of the normal rainfall total for the entire month of May.

On Sunday evening, the National Weather Service warned of widespread, major flash flooding ongoing across the southwestern suburbs of Chicago along with many flooding issues across the Chicago Metro itself.

Some areas adjacent to the Chicago River, which will continue to rise into Monday morning, have already seen the river overflow its banks. The River City Indoor Garage, a parking garage in River City area of downtown Chicago, unfortunately lived up to its name as water rushed into the structure Sunday evening.

As of early Monday morning, the 24-hour rainfall totals of 2-4 inches were rather widespread from Wisconsin and Illinois to western Michigan and Indiana.

Through the day Monday, the greatest threat for heavy rain capable of producing flash flooding will encompass the Lower Peninsula of Michigan, along with portions of Indiana and Ohio.

This rain will be extremely heavy at times, Edwards warned. Monday night the flooding threat will begin to shift south out of Michigan, focusing more on the Ohio Valley.

An AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 6 inches can occur where storms repeatedly move over an area.

Flash flooding is especially likely to impact low-lying and poor-drainage areas, Edwards added.

Residents who must travel will need to be vigilant for any ponding or flooding on roadways and remember to never drive through floodwaters.

There is the potential for a few locally severe storms to develop Monday afternoon to Monday evening.

A few of these stronger thunderstorms could produce damaging wind gusts and even an isolated tornado or two.

Related:

Goodbye summerlike warmth? Soggy, cool conditions to return to eastern US
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Coronavirus daily briefing: Record-breaking rain forces the closure of 14 testing sites in South Florida

The storm will attempt to exit the Midwest during the day Monday, but will be forced to slow almost to a halt by the first named tropical system of the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season, Tropical Storm Arthur.

The influence of Arthur off the East coast will prevent the Midwest storm system from progressing any farther east, and instead it will begin to shift south, toward the Tennessee Valley, pushed by high pressure moving in to the north.

Rain will linger over the region into Tuesday afternoon before dry conditions begin to win out.

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Following early week wet and cooler conditions, there is hope on the horizon for warm weather lovers in the area.

After temperatures generally linger in the 50s and 60s for those under rainy skies early this week, conditions will begin to slowly warm up on Tuesday. By Thursday, much of the Midwest will experience temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s, and these more seasonable conditions will last into the weekend.

Keep checking back on AccuWeather.com and stay tuned to the AccuWeather Network on DirecTV, Frontier and Verizon Fios.

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