Significant September Nor’easter: Storm to cause coastal flooding, beach erosion
Autumn officially begins Tuesday evening and the atmosphere may soon deliver a damaging early-season nor’easter with tropical moisture that could bring rain, strong winds and erosive surf on the mid-Atlantic coast.
The stormy weather will begin along the mid-Atlantic coast Tuesday and Wednesday, then shifts toward Long Island and eastern New England with stronger winds late in the week.
A storm is forecast to form and strengthen into a potent nor'easter along the mid-Atlantic coast this week. Depending on its track and intensity, damaging winds, erosive surf and coastal flooding are the primary threats from eastern North Carolina and Virginia to New England. Drenching rain could bring urban floodin in some areas. The nor'easter could take on some characteristics of a tropical storm.
"As a large buckle develops in the jet stream due to a blocking pattern, the storms moving in from the Midwest will stall," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Chad Merrill said.
This setup will cause clouds, drizzle, fog and drenching rain to persist from the Carolinas to Ohio, Pennsylvania and New Jersey into Wednesday. Enough rain may fall to trigger flash flooding and travel delays.
However, this is not the main storm of concern for this week.
"As the dip in the jet stream becomes more pronounced, a new storm is forecast to form in a zone right along the coast to up to a couple of hundred miles offshore," Merrill explained.
The closer to the coast the storm forms and strengthens into a nor'easter, the greater the risk of damaging winds, storm surge and beach erosion. Pockets of drenching rain may exacerbate coastal flooding.
The track will highly influence the storm’s impact. The storm may wander out to sea for a time, then drift west and return close to the coast later this week. More significant impacts will occur should the storm strengthen over open water and turn back toward the mid-Atlantic or New England coast, while less severe impacts would occur if the storm continued moving along rather than turning back toward the coast.
Two areas may be the hardest hit by the storm: Southeastern Virginia would face major tidal impacts and heavy rain, while southeastern New England could face the full wrath of a powerful nor'easter or subtropical storm with high winds, rain and coastal flooding.
"The rain could extend far enough north to ease the ongoing drought in Maine," Merrill said. "Regardless of how close to the coast the storm tracks, it has the potential to become strong enough to bring soaking rain and gusty winds in coastal areas, while prolonged rough surf may cause well-above-normal tides and beach erosion."
A full-blown nor'easter could lead to major travel disruptions due to flooding rain, wind gusts that could trigger power outages and significant coastal flooding.
The full moon will raise astronomical tide levels later this week, and the storm will push water levels even higher.
Coastal flooding, especially around high tide, is likely from North Carolina to New York from Tuesday through Friday. The threat may persist along the northern mid-Atlantic coast and expand into southeastern New England this weekend.
Major coastal flooding is anticipated in the lower half of the Chesapeake Bay, on the western side of the bay, and in the tidal rivers that flow into the bay. This is where east-to-northeast winds will cause water to pile up. The worst conditions will be around the time of astronomical high tides beginning on Wednesday.
Depending on the storm’s strength, dangerously rough seas could develop offshore, potentially rivaling those produced by a hurricane or midwinter nor'easter. Small-craft operators are urged to closely monitor the forecast.
It is possible that, as the storm lingers offshore of the mid-Atlantic coast and then New England, it could develop tropical characteristics and be dubbed a hybrid or subtropical storm this weekend.
"Regardless of the severity of the nor'easter, there will be no shortage of cool autumn air in the Northeast, especially over the Appalachians this week," Merrill said.
Highs will generally range from the 50s to the 60s in the mountains and from the 60s to the lower 70s near the coast.
Autumn officially will arrive at 8:05 p.m. EDT on Tuesday.
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