Daily downpours to mar outdoor plans in the Southeast this week, but also bring drought relief
Soaking showers and thunderstorms will plague the South through late week, slowing travel and washing out vacation plans, but also offering a glimmer of hope for those who have been dealing with very dry conditions.
Thunderstorms rumbled across the Southeast from July 17-18, causing flash flooding in some areas.
Multiple days of heavy but much-needed rain will plague the Southeast this week, warn AccuWeather meteorologists. While the rain will be welcome for non-vacationers and those without outdoor plans, it could end up being too much of a good thing.
Localized flooding, gusty winds and travel delays will all be possible this week as showers and thunderstorms move through the region amid a very moist flow. Relief from the daily bouts of rain may not come until next weekend, as the month of July begins to wind down.
Days of drenching showers and storms
The source of the rain in the Southeast this week is routed in the tropics, explain AccuWeather meteorologists.
"An area of high pressure has set up shop off the Southeast coast," said AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Dan Pydynowski. "This will help direct a flow of moisture around it through the Southeast, with its origins in the Caribbean, Central America and Gulf of Mexico."
Residents and visitors alike will have to plan for days of periodic heavy rain. While it will not be a total washout each day from start to finish, clusters of showers and thunderstorms will visit most areas at least once per day through late week, especially amid daytime heating in the midday through evening hours, bringing downpours and the risk for dangerous lightning.
"The downpours can lead to difficult driving and travel conditions due to reduced visibility and ponding on roadways," added Pydynowski. Trips to the beach, baseball games or amusement parks in the region are among the outdoor activities that can be impacted.
Baseball fans wait for the rain to pass before a baseball game between the St. Louis Cardinals and Atlanta Braves, Friday, July 19, 2024, in Atlanta. (AP Photo/Jason Allen)
In addition, there will be a risk for flooding, not of the variety where larger rivers can rise above their banks, but suddenly amid downpours in low-lying, poor drainage and urbanized areas. This risk for flooding will occur wherever thunderstorms drop more than an inch of rain in less than an hour, which is a strong possibility.
While flooding is the primary concern this week, a few select storms can also turn severe. A severe thunderstorm is one that can produce damaging winds and large hail; in this case, the gusty winds are of concern, which combined with heavy rain can make for briefly dangerous conditions for travelers and those stranded outside. However, it will be difficult to pinpoint exactly where severe storms will form due to the expected chaotic nature of shower and thunderstorm development from Tuesday onward.
While the Florida Peninsula will escape the corridor of heaviest rain for most of the week, that will not be the case through Tuesday, as a tropical wave moves through the area and brings locally heavy showers and storms. This 'wave' is not expected to develop tropically, largely thanks to dust and drier air in the upper atmosphere that will put a lid on the strengthening of this wave and others elsewhere in the tropical Atlantic this week.
Not all bad news: some drought relief is expected
For many in the Southeast, the rain this week will be seen as liquid gold.
"These daily downpours will be welcome news for farmers and gardeners," said Pydynowski. "This is because much of Alabama, Georgia, the Carolinas, Virginia and eastern Tennessee are in the grips of a drought."
According to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor released last Thursday, 'severe' or 'extreme' drought was present in portions of 11 states from Georgia to Pennsylvania. The worst of the drought was clustered near the Alabama-Tennessee border, and from the eastern Carolinas to northwestern Virginia, where rain has been sparse over the better part of the past two months, leading to a flash drought.
The dry weather has led to burning and water restrictions, low stream flows and brown, burnt-out lawns. The rain expected over the course of the week will not end the drought completely, but it could go a long way in providing relief. This is because the rain will occur over the course of multiple days.
Dry lawns, such as this one in Goode, Virginia, on July 12, 2024, are a hallmark of summertime flash droughts. (photo by Emily Young)
Another benefit of the rain will be the lid placed on daily temperatures in the region, with the mercury likely to fall well short of 90 degrees F in most spots, most days. Such high temperatures are several degrees below the historical average for late July, which is climatologically the hottest period of the year.
"Thanks to the clouds and wetter pattern, daytime afternoon highs will be held in check," said Pydynowski. "This includes the cities of Atlanta, Charlotte and Raleigh."
A pattern change expected late this week or next weekend should finally put an end to the widespread daily shower and thunderstorm activity in the region, dialing it back down to more isolated, typical summertime activity in the days leading up to August.
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