Yes, East, a Big Snowstorm is Coming.
UPDATE: We have now issued an official map for this weekend's storm. This is subject to change as the week moves on.
You can read more about the setup for a big snowstorm this weekend, today on Henry's blog, but yes, readers, a big snowstorm cropped up on the models over the weekend, and it's still there, which is a good sign. Most of our meteorologists agree that we are in a pattern conducive to a large storm; what we don't yet know is where. Will it cut up through the Great Lakes (which the ECMWF is suggesting, and Henry thinks this is very unlikely), will it blow up off as a Nor'easter and bury somebody with two feet of snow, or will it go out to sea (counting meteorologically but not for snow fans)?
As always, I won't bore you with the meteorology but instead will show the actual snow prediction maps from the models (DGEX above and GFS below), which are from AccuWeather.com Professional. As Henry points out, we have 26 model runs yet before the storm gets here, so you should take these with a grain of salt. What I am trying to point out here is that both of these models are talking about serious snow amounts, in fact the weekend GFS model run that sparked the hype had more snow than I think I've ever seen.
These solutions are not that different (there is some inaccuracy inherent in the GFS because it is snow cover, not snow fall, and some areas esp. east of the Great Lakes will have snow on the ground before this storm). But again, the ECMWF model is not buying this solution, and that worries me. Yes, I linked to proof last winter that the model is more accurate than the GFS, in general, but it can still be wrong. and there's still plenty of time for the storm to go west or east of the current prediction (the big cities on the East Coast are not out of the woods yet).
The NWS in Louisville, KY points out"In fact...the Canadian Gem solution and track looks similar to the great appalachian storm of November 1950."
