Tornado Outbreak Pt. 2, Flood, Spillway Update
9 PM UPDATE: The outbreak got off to a slow start, but now 14 tornadoes have been reported, mostly in the last few hours. Sorry I didn't do any video blogs but the storms didn't look that great on radar. Flood Update: Blog reader T.R. points out this Flood Warning that says the spillway will be opened tomorrow in New Orleans.
1 PM UPDATE: The SPC has reduced the size of the Moderate Risk area today. I believe it is unlikely at this time that we will see a large severe weather outbreak to beat the ones of the past two years, but we could still see a smaller number of large, devastating tornadoes, and the media can't really tell the difference between the two anyway.
ORIGINAL REPORT:
Man, there were some crazy storms to look at last night - but in the end, there were only 6 Tornado Reports. Will there be more today? Almost assuredly, today's action should trump yesterday's - although The SPC didn't issue a High Risk as I anticipated, today's Moderate Risk encompasses a much larger area. (More below).
Like I said Tuesday, I'm still not impressed by the Severe Weather Indices that I'm seeing from the models today (I just had a chance to look at CAPE & Lifted Index from the NMM & 4-KM WRF, I'm working on a million things today). I think this entire event may have been overhyped. Of course, that said, we still have a ridiculously large Moderate Risk and the models have been wrong before, so let's sit back and observe. Check out this huge advisories map too, isn't that incredible, we've got everything from Blizzards to Tornadoes in the center of the nation.
A BREAKING UPDATE ON THE MISSISSIPPI FLOODING... A blog reader who has contacts at the aforementioned Bonnet Carre Spillway in New Orleans says that it will be opened tomorrow. I can't confirm that via Google News yet, but that's the rumor. The USGS gauge now shows a rise from 13 to 21 feet over the past month (archived image). Flooding is, of course, continuing to occur north of the New Orleans area -- below are a couple of precipitation maps, 2-day and 30-day rainfall.
