There`s That Moderate Risk

UPDATE: The Moderate Risk has been issued, for the Arklatex, valid through at least Thursday morning.

ORIGINAL POST:

The SPC has admitted this morning in a Mesoscale Discussion that they do plan to post a Moderate Risk of severe storms this evening:

CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK WILL BE UPGRADED TO CATEGORICAL MDT RISK FOR SVR TSTMS LATE TONIGHT ACROSS ARKLATEX REGION -- MAINLY AFTER 09/06Z. POTENTIAL IS INCREASING FOR DAMAGING WIND AND SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES DURING OVERNIGHT HOURS ALONG/AHEAD OF SFC FRONT ACROSS OUTLINED REGION. THIS WILL CARRY OVER AND EXPAND GEOGRAPHICALLY INTO 1730Z DAY-2 OUTLOOK...WHICH ALSO WILL BE UPGRADED TO MDT RISK FROM THIS AREA NEWD THRU SEWD ACROSS LOWER MS VALLEY REGION.

Remember, this is NOT the first Moderate Risk of 2006 -- you may recall we had one this year in mid-January.