The Latest Models on Thanksgiving NE Snow
NOTE: See my final Thanksgiving 2010 blog "Thanksgivings Past and Present in Central PA" for additional details.
Our forecasters agree: The computer forecast models have never been waffling as much as during this past week. Even Henry Margusity, who's been known to go out on a limb or two, was quiet until yesterday. The models this morning agree with Henry -- this will be a storm that swings through the Great Lakes, not a Nor'easter. Here's what the overnight DGEX model says the radar will look like Thanksgiving night:
DGEX Model Forecast 11/19/2010
As a result, this is the model's guess on how much snow will be on the ground on Black Friday:
DGEX Model Snow Forecast 11/19/2010
The overnight GFS (below) believes the significant snow (light blue is only flurries) will be further north as will the snow cover. The ECMWF (which I can't show here due to contractual rules) is as far, or further north than the GFS, showing zero snow accumulation south of the Adirondacks in northeast New York State.
GFS Model Forecast 11/19/2010
We're being cautious with our official snow forecast at this time, and our accumulated snow map shows even less than the GFS:
AccuWeather Snow Forecast 11/19/2010
Regardless of what these models are saying, it's likely the Laurel Highlands in Pennsylvania, down where Local storm chaser Ron "R-Factor" Shawley lives, will see accumulating snow from upsloping or lake-effect (Ron averages over 150" of snow per season, three times what we do here in State College, Pennsylvania, home of AccuWeather HQ [Google Map].
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