Rare HIGH RISK For Southeast Tornadoes
The high risk area has been extended to the Northeast, nearly doubling in size. Below is an image showing the earlier (paler colors) and newest Risk areas. Western Tennessee and the point at which TN/KY/MO/IL/AR meet are now squarely in the sights of the most dangerous part of today's storm system.
Looking back at past blog entries, I have never covered a High Risk situation in the December-February time frame. I did cover the Moderate Risk in Pennsylvania in December 2006, the Moderate Risk in the Southeast in January 2006, and of course the January Moderate Risk in the Deep South last month.
The SPC has issued a HIGH RISK for Severe Thunderstorms in Arkansas and northwest Mississippi, with a Moderate Risk over much of the lower Mississippi Valley. The SPC only issues about half a dozen High Risks each year, and it has been 10 years since one was issued in February (WikiPedia list of High Risks). Here's a look at the Tornado Risk specifically (map updated at 9 AM):
STAY TUNED TO THIS BLOG AND THIS FORUM THREAD FOR BREAKING VIDEOS ON THIS STORM TODAY
A 30% tornado probability doesn't sound like much, but that's about as high as it ever gets (the key doesn't even go higher!). The outbreak will start this morning - already at 9 AM they are anticipating a Tornado Watch for Arkansas.
Later today I will post some of the other famous Winter Tornado Outbreaks, along with what the SPC forecast was then, to give us an idea of how historical this storm may be (for February), but even without doing that, I can guarantee that (if the forecast is correct) these storms will be making the news tomorrow morning.
This morning's SPC discussion reads in part:
Report a Typo
