Radar, Model Results from Severe Outbreak

Yesterday's severe weather outbreak prompted over 150 Tornado Warnings and resulted in 23 spotter reports of Tornadoes (you can see the details on the StormMatrix). Winds were pretty impressive, with 87 mph in Illinois and 80 mph clocked in Oklahoma. Large hail fell in Oklahoma, but only baseball sized (2.75" diameter) - I would have expected to see at least one report of softball sized (4.25") hail. But the highlight was the (probably) tornadic damage in Kirksville, Missouri (see Raw Video at right). Here's a radar image of the storm as it struck the town (you can even see the hook echo!)

| OTHER STORM WALLPAPERS: 9:30 PM | 2:40 AM

The NWS also has a page with highlights, radar images and photos from a local TV station.

Below is a comparison of The SPC [JessePedia] forecast and the Storm Spotter reports:

They did a great job, though the large hole in severe reports in northeast Missouri is surprising.

I don't think any of the models I posted yesterday did a great job in specifying where the biggest tornadoes would be - in fact they pretty much just encircled the southwest part of the Moderate Risk (they never seemed convinced anything was going to happen in Illinois, and even though there were a lot of severe reports there, there were no tornado reports). The large numbers of SRH & EHI that took place in the morning before the storms hit were also misleading. The 24-hour simulated radar prediction was not great either - the storms developed into a distinct line early. But I only spent a few minutes analyzing this stuff yesterday - a meteorologist with a few hours to do it properly might have a different opinion.