In the weather news today, there is this article about Key West, Florida considering reducing its number of mandatory Hurricane evacuations this year. This sounds like a terrible idea, considering that those islands are probably the most hurricane-damage-prone area of the United States, but they quote better forecasts and roads making evacuations quicker than they used to be, and to be fair the city of Key West alone loses $1,500,000 per day in revenue when evacuated, the article says.

One does assume that, with modern communication and forecasting, something like this (a train wrecked by a hurricane in Key West killing 250 people in 1935) could never happen again:

But the article is quick to point out that one vehicular accident could close the only road out, and meteorology certainly recommends "better safe than sorry" -- consider Hurricane Charley's rapid intensification from 110 to 145 mph in 3 hours [WikiPedia], just north of Key West. What do YOU think? Leave me a Comment below.

P.S.: One thing to note about this article is that it talks about the U.S. Government NHC's "dreaded cone of uncertainty" (their words not mine). The NHC's reaction to the article: "though forecasters brief emergency officials and post hurricane watches and warnings, it's up to local officials to make evacuation calls." It's important to remember that commercial services such as AccuWeather provide services to Emergency Management including track (not cone) forecasts, and the ability to discuss the weather with a meteorologist over the phone.

Comments (6): Watch Winder:

What is with this crazy flooding in Alabama and Georgia? I hope that folks get the care they need as the flood waters subside.

watch winder

Posted by Watch Winder | September 24, 2009 10:55 PM Thomas F. Giella:

When I was in the U.S. Coast Guard as a Meteorologist and Oceanographer I was stationed in Miami. My jurisdiction stretched from Ft. Pierce in the north to Dry Tortugas (west of Key West) in the south.

On a daily basis I saw first hand just how vulnerable the Florida Keys are to storm surge and how dangerous it could be to ride out any hurricane.

It's a bad idea period!

Posted by Thomas F. Giella | July 7, 2009 12:11 PM Ralph:

I think emergency officials need to look at evacuations on a hurricane by hurricane basis. Some are stronger than others. They need to be consulting NOAA, NHC, DHS, FEMA, etc. After Katrina, anything is possible. Never in my lifetime would I think a hurricane would kill 1,000 people with modern technology in place. With the economy in the dumps, evacuation is a touchy subject, it seems like the keys get evacuated the most out of all hurricane-prone areas in the US.

Posted by Ralph | July 7, 2009 10:04 AM Greg:

I still agree with the "better safe than sorry" mindset. At the same time, perhaps there could be two levels of evacuations.

First level is recommended or advised evacuation, maybe even mandatory for tourists - which don't readily have the ability to stockpile food and water and would add further burden to emergency relief.

Second level would be mandatory for everybody.

Posted by Greg | July 7, 2009 9:02 AM Rick Fanning:

Hmm, I had never thought about what to do with trains during a hurricane. When I was in the Navy, we took the ships out to sea, but you can't do that with a train.

Well, as is typical, again it looks like the almighty dollar may win out against common sense. Does the city really rake in that much cash while it is being threatened by tropical wind and rain and high surf? Surely not from tourism!

Rick Fanning

Posted by Rick Fanning | July 7, 2009 7:57 AM Jonathan:

I think it is a bad idea. Models usually have a could grasp of what is going to happen, but it is never for sure. The unexpected could happen and many people could lose their live's. As you said, better safe than sorry.

Posted by Jonathan | July 6, 2009 10:35 PM