HYPE: East Coast Tropical Storm? KS Rain.

UPDATE: We have (finally) created an official graphic noting the possibility of a tropical storm this weekend:

ORIGINAL POST:

Time's up for the GFS's hype last week about a Tropical Storm crossing Florida, and it hasn't happened. Is this any big surprise?

But the models are now warning of another possible Tropical Storm, forming east of Melbourne but moving over open waters to the Northeast, even missing Canada. The GFS's strongest pressure is sub-1004 mb off the coast of North Carolina on June 5th.

The European model, which I am not allowed to show here due to contractual agreements, nearly bounces a sub-996 mb low off of Hatteras a day earlier than the GFS (Monday June 4th), before finally making landfall as a sub-1000 mb low on June 6th.

The DGEX is even earlier, with a sub-1000 mb circulation off the mid-Atlantic coast on the morning of the 3rd, and making landfall not any stronger in Maine early on the 5th. All in all, the NCEP Ensembles this morning are not worried about East Coast landfall, according to this map which shows all storm tracks:

What does it all mean? Only Joe Bastardi can say. If your business could be impacted by tropical storms this season, subscribe to our Energy Pro site. Joe has a custom forecast map for this storm and will continue to do so with future storms all season.

P.S.: The GFS says 8-10 inches of rainfall around Wichita in the next few days, something that the NMM model is ignoring.