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WeatherMatrix (Jesse Ferrell)

Hurricane Earl Could Become Cat 5 - Stats

By Jesse Ferrell, Meteorologist/Community Director
8/31/2010, 7:54:57 AM

UPDATE: Join me for an article I just wrote for AccuWeather.com: "How Northeast Should Prepare For Earl."

UPDATE: After some discussion looking at the situation this morning, we now believe that it is less likely than we previously thought that Earl will become a Cat 5 storm, certainly not today, as the storm is going through (temporary) weakening. This will be reflected in our 11 AM forecast and we explain why in this story.

As you can see from our morning forecast map and story, a live version of which you can see on our Hurricane Center (I'll reprint here with that disclaimer) we believe Hurricane Earl will become a Category 5 storm. Conversely, the National Hurricane Center (U.S. government) puts the chance at only 5% this morning (they had it at 12% last night). The overnight Strength Models do not show anything above a 4.



If he does achieve Cat 5 status, he will be the first Category 5 Atlantic Storm since 2007, and the first outside of the Gulf and Caribbean since Isabel in 2003. Should he maintain that status north of the Florida Keys, he will be the only storm to have done so in that area (see my blog from yesterday).

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Jesse Ferrell


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WeatherMatrix (Jesse Ferrell)