Haiti, Hazel, Hurricanes, Record Season and Tomas
LOL UPDATE: One model now says Tomas will hit North Carolina like Hazel, lol:
UPDATE:Tomas long-range model tracks are showing it staying off the U.S. coast as of Tuesday morning. The NHC has his maximum intensity at a 4-14% probability for Cat 3 - 4.
A couple of interesting items of interest with what's left of Hurricane Tomas in the Caribbean. First, not many storms take the expected path of Tomas, moving northeastward across Haiti. Most storms move west to east in the area. The only hurricane to take this path was Hurricane Hazel in 1954, which has had a track very similar to Tomas thus far. Here's Hazel's path with Tomas so far, and the current AccuWeather.com Interactive Eyepath forecast (click here to see updated forecasts, the image below will not change!)
computer forecast model spread doesn't go out far enough to see where Tomas will end up.
Besides Hazel, I could only find two hurricanes even close on the NOAA Hurricane GIS system (200 nm from Haiti) taking this northeastward path, Hurricane Katie in 1955 which went further east over the Dominican Republic and an unnamed hurricane in 1859 that went over eastern Cuba. An interesting tidbit to be sure.
In other news, Tomas puts us on our 19th named storm, or 21 if you count Depressions. That puts us in the second or third busiest Atlantic season ever, depending on how you count it. Of course, if you interpret an "active" season as involving U.S. landfalls of major storms, this would not be an active year. However, our Joe Bastardi points out that there have been 5 or 6 "impacts" to the U.S. coasts this year - meaning that tropical systems have affected them.
YEAR: Total Systems (Depressions)
2005: 31 (4) = 27 "Named" 1933: 21 (0) = 21 "Named"2010: 21 (2) = 19 "Named" 2003: 20 (5) = 15 "Named"
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