Ernesto to Hit Jesse`s Beach?

Ernesto is almost a hurricane (70 mph winds at 2:30 pm) heading for my beach [JessePedia] -- Oak Island / Long Beach, North Carolina. I say "my beach" like I own it or something... but it is my old stomping ground. So, like last year during Hurricane Ophelia, butterflies again fill my stomach at the thought that "my beach" might not exist next year and I feel guilty for not visiting this year (Mom took the photo below, from our rental house's front porch, earlier this month).

The graphic below shows our latest forecast. Now of course, this could change and the forecast models are beginning to diverge near landfall, both west and east.

At 12:30 today, I held conference with AccuWeather meteorologist Ken Reeves, who, amongst others, is trying to figure out where our on-air personality Jim Kosek should be sent next (he currently is doing videos along with videographer Vern Horst in Myrtle Beach, South Carolina). If we think the storm will make landfall somewhere in Brunswick County (the south-facing coast next to the SC border) then the most likely target for our OCM's (on-camera meteorologists) is Wilmington. (The NHC's going for a NC/SC border hit, we're slightly east of there).

Being there should almost guarantee that we'll be in the RFQ [JessePedia] of the storm, ensuring impressive video. Southport is also a possibility though as you can see from Google Maps, it is considerably sheltered by nearby islands so waves will be smaller there. Anything on the south coast of Brunswick County, such as Oak Island, is probably out due to the difficulty of getting in and out of the islands (especially if the bridges close, which is not anticipated at this time according to WECT).

If the storm strengthens into a hurricane, the exact landfall (and therefore placement of the RFQ) will determine the fate of Oak Island. A hit to the west could wash out some basements and wash away some houses. A hit to the east will feel more like a common rainstorm. Here's hoping that Oak Island weathers another storm well.

Just close your eyes,
and feel the salty rain.
It's just salty rain,
for tomorrow will be a new day.

-- Memories of Tomorrow (broadcast by DI.fm)