Deep South deep low pressure brings high winds
An extremely low pressure storm system will move through the Southeast tonight and tomorrow; some are asking if it will be record-breaking. Short answer is probably not, based on the models I'm looking at today. However, it will be a very low pressure storm, especially for this time of year. The official NWS forecast shows this:
The storm in question will be <988 millibars, or 29.18" Hg in western Tennessee, by this forecast. The records for that area are as follows:
Memphis, TN: 28.96" Nashville, TN: 29.01"
As you move northeast towards the Great Lakes, the record pressures lower quickly. The NAM computer forecast model shows additional strengthening past Tennessee, with sub-29.20" readings in Kentucky (record in Louisville is 28.94") and sub-29.00 in Maine (record in Portland is 28.40"). The GFS and Euro models (below) show 988-990 mb low pressure centers in Tennessee, so it's unlikely we'll break records.
That said, what this could cause is a fast-moving squall line with very high wind speeds (thunderstorms or not). The HRRR model predicts wind gusts over 60 knots (69 mph) tonight around midnight in Alabama and maxes out with gusts over 80 knots (92 mph) later tonight in the Tennessee/Carolina mountains!
Even sustained winds are projected over 45 knots (50 mph) as shown by the HRRR forecast below:
