Cold Blast: -40 Degrees in NY State Next Week?

UPDATE 2/11: I have updated the list of forecast lows from yesterday with the lows so far this year in parentheses below. The GFS has moderated its worst-case scenario slightly in this morning's run, but still sees temps <-30 in Pennsylvania and New York. The Euro model has dropped slightly.

As to the "trend" here's a more in-depth article showing that the U.S. is actually above normal this winter and New York City is only -1.7 degrees, even considering the February data. If this cold continues with no let-up for the rest of the month, it will start to look more like last winter's cold streak, but that is unlikely.

ORIGINAL BLOG 2/10: The temperatures predicted by the models for the cold outbreak last week were a little overdone, but not by much. I saw -8 F at my house here in State College, one of my top 5 but Penn State was more than 15 degrees above their record from 1994. Another cold shot, however, is on the way. Here's the worst-case scenario as told by the GFS model for next Tue. morning:

The ECWMF model also shows -10 F here in central Pennsylvania, but doesn't bottom out below that. The GFS is showing some pretty impressive predictions (based on this map - lows so far this year in parentheses):

- Parts of Canada: Below -50
- Lake Saranac, N.Y.: -40 (-25)
- Utica, N.Y.: -37 (-18)
- Binghamton, N.Y.: -32 (-5)
- Dubois, Pa.: -25 (-5)
- Middle of Nowhere, W.Va.: -22
- Harrisburg, Pa.: -17 (+2)
- State College, Pa.: -10 (+1)
- Philadelphia: -7 (+9)
- New York City: -4 (+8)

SIDENOTE: Despite these cold shots, most of the Northeast hasn't really been below normal for the last year. The map below shows the temperature compared to average for last year, and the graph shows the readings for New York City, which hasn't had a long string of below normal temperatures since last winter.