Choose Your 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Forecast

UPDATE 6/21: We have upped Joe Bastardi's 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast from 16-18 to 18-21 storms!

UPDATE 6/17: The UK Met Office finally issued their outlook (20 storms) and the AccuWeather.com outlook will be updated on Monday.

AS OF JUNE 5TH, NO FURTHER UPDATES WILL BE MADE TO THE CHART BELOW UNLESS THERE ARE ERRORS.

UPDATE 6/4: Updated numbers for new forecast from CrownWeather.

UPDATE 6/3: Corrected number of hurricanes for WTI which should have been 16, not 8, and adjusted averages which weren't calculating correctly.

UPDATE 6/2: I have corrected my "range" numbers which were supposed to summarize the columns, added the Florida State COAPS forecast, updated the TSR forecast as of May 25 (previously using the April 9 numbers 11.3/6.4/3.7 for storms/hurrs/majors), and updated the CSU numbers for their June 1st forecast of 18/10/5 (previously using the April 7 numbers of 15/8/4). They also believe we can add another two weeks to the time that named storms will exist this season. For CSU, all of that is a pretty big increase in their forecast! This has all increased the average number of storms forecast from 13 to 15.4!

CORRECTION 5/28: I have made a change to the AccuWeather forecast below. I had said that our forecast didn't officially mention the number of hurricanes and major hurricanes, so I estimated that using Joe Bastardi's "two-thirds rule." That led me to say our forecast was 11.3 & 7.6. We have now come out with an official forecast of 11.0 & 5.0.

In related news, we have released a news article detailing the differences between our forecast and NOAA's, which uses the graphic below to illustrate.

I also added WTI & CrownWeather to the list late yesterday as well as this note about why seasonal hurricane forecasting is viable:

ORIGINAL REPORT:

It's that time of year folks! Nine (UPDATE: ten) different organizations have thrown their 2010 Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Forecast hats into the ring. Here's a comparison (graph & data updated 6/2, previous versions available here and here):

As you can see, all the "major players" (and by that I mean large organizations who have been doing this for more than 10 years) are in agreement that this storm season will be much above average (1950-2000 as indicated by the squares at the bottom). This season will be much, much more active than last year but should fall short of the incredible 2005 season. Our Joe Bastardi says that this year will probably be in the Top 10 active hurricane seasons, and is forecasting more details about landfalls.

If I've mistyped anything above, or omitted any organizations, please message me on Facebook.

SOURCES: AccuWeather.com, NOAA (National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration, Colorado State University (CSU), Florida State University COAPS (FSU), WSI (Weather Services International), WRC (Weather Research Centre), TSR (Tropical Storm Risk) (April), 28storms.com, WTI (Weather Trends International), CrownWeather. WikiPedia for 2005/2009 data. Note that most forecasts are for a "range" but I have averaged the range above for everyone.

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