2008-2009 Winter Forecast Analysis, Inside Info
Our forecast is out. You can find it in our Weather Headlines (PREMIUM | PRO) but will be archived here.
I just got out of the briefing with Joe Bastardi when writing the above. I have posted some additional comments below.
First, let me say that I'm always impressed with how we come up with out winter forecast. Although Joe Bastardi is at the center of the prediction, he consults with other meteorologists here (many brought up good points during today's meeting), but also seasoned meteorologists from educational institutions, and even competitors and the government. Heck, he even asked an Amish lady about the hair on her horses after a good prediction from the Amish a couple of years ago. Some forecasters brought up the unusual squirrel activity we've had (as a joke?)*
The press release is not meant to be read without forecaster consultation, so I'll attempt to be that consultant for you below. Feel free to leave Comments or ask questions via the Comment form. I will not be accepting comments via email. It's important to remember these points when considering our press release:
1. We are not predicting individual weather events, only averages over the whole winter. 2. The "winter" is defined as December/January/February for the purposes of this press release.
Here are the highlights (quoted info comes directly from the press release linked above, italicized info is from me based on the internal meeting we had):
+ "Joe Bastardi Forecasts Coldest Winter in Five Years"
- The important point here is that it will be colder than it has been, note that we are not necessarily saying it will be colder than normal, but we haven't been normal (in the Northeast) or below normal since the winter of 2003-2004.
+ "The core of cold was centered across the Great Plains** last year but is expected to be farther east this year."
This is also key. The coldest air will be in the Ohio Valley and parts of the Northeast. The storm track will also shift east, no longer in the Plains/Midwest/Great Lakes but not as far east as the Major Cities on the I-95 corridor. While it's too early to predict specific snowfall amounts in individual cities, or even temperatures, the city of Pittsburgh was mentioned a number of times as a central point for both cold and snow.
+ "Winter will be off to a cold start in December with perhaps the roughest winter month for much of the nation."
This idea of a brutal December in the Northeast was a recurring theme. It could even start in late November. Not only that, Joe turned us on to an even-shorter term cold snap that he expects around either side of Halloween (by a week or two). Although the bulk of the cold will center in the middle of the nation, the cold and winter weather that we experienced in the Fall of 2002 here in State College, PA was mentioned, when we had to go trick-or-treating in the snow (it's impossible to predict precip that far out, but the cold air will be there). Cool waters in the western Gulf may also inhibit the second severe weather season.
+ "The East will not turn out as lucky, as more snowfall than last year is expected."
To clarify what was said here, we are not talking about northwest New England breaking last year's record snowfalls - our point is that most places in the East will see more snowfall this winter than last. See also note above that the storm track may not make it to the Major Cities so we're not talking gangbusters snowfall for them.
+ "In some cases, homeowners trying to keep their residences as warm as last winter could spend hundreds of dollars more this heating season."
This was done with the information recently provided by the EIA in mind (they were basing their forecast of $500 on a NOAA seasonal forecast which is not as cold as ours, but still below normal, according to the article, even though that is against what is published on their website - archived here). Note that we are only talking about those in the Northeast who heat with oil, so the quote above will probably be for a small number of individuals, if it comes true. Note also that this assumption is dependent on changes in the price of oil, which has been all over the map in the last two months. It also assumes that people will try to keep the thermostat at the same temperature as last year - people may already be planning on lowering it a degree or two.
+ "Between the bookends of cold, Bastardi expects "the January thaw of old winter lore""
I'm posting this to specifically keep people from declaring that "winter is over and AccuWeather was wrong" when it gets warm in January. It will get cold again after that. :)
+ "Temperatures across most of the West will be warmer than last year and should be warmer than normal... The northern Rockies and Northwest will still have more snow than normal but not as much as last year..."
I know, those in the West (and somewhat South) are asking "Where's the Beef?" because most of our forecast concentrated on the East. I don't have any more info that was not included in the Press Release. Check with our regional forecasters Frank Strait (PREMIUM | PRO) (Southern Expert) and Ken Clark (PREMIUM | PRO) (Western Expert) for their opinions.
The overall cold winter is supported by the Canadian Ensembles, the CFS Forecast Model [JessePedia]. Joe Bastardi's "analog years" (previous winters which are similar) are 1950-51 and 1985-86 at this time (maps by NCDC).
IMPORTANT NOTE: This forecast will be updated, with maps, next month. A more scientific discussion will probably be provided by Joe on Pro site soon.
I'll also try to keep a record here on where our press release has been picked up (and paraphrased) by the Media. If you see any I missed, drop me an email.
- UPI - "United States facing a cold winter"- Reuters: "Expect cold and snowy winter in East"- Maryland Weather Blog - Excellent Info & Discussion - MORE
*I blogged about winter weather folklore this time last year and won't repeat all that here. Most natural indications such as horses shedding hair or squirrels squirreling away more nuts than usual are more of a reaction to what's currently happening, than what will happen. For example, the Northeast is in a cooler-than-normal spell now, and yes, it will be cooler than normal this winter, but the two aren't necessarily related. I will say though, the squirrels have been working more furiously than normal, leaving shells all over my yard and their treasures underneath.
**Two instances of "Midwest" in the original press release were replaced with "Great Plains" in a later version.
Comments (12):
christian:
It's december and now i'm woundering how many blizzards, snowstorms and clippers i'm going to have and how many iches of snow in philadelphia?
Posted by christian | December 8, 2008 2:33 PM
ron:
i live in central pa how much snow r u talking about for the winter since ur saying alot
Posted by ron | November 9, 2008 11:13 PM
Kirk:
Hmmm... should I buy a season pass for three ski areas in Western Pennsylvania? The areas make their own snow, depending on how cold the air is.
Posted by Kirk | October 27, 2008 6:29 PM
Erick:
So, The East Will Get More Snow...Im A Snowmobiler and I Was Wondering, What About The Illinois Michigan Area?? More Snow Or Just Cold??
Posted by Erick | October 23, 2008 12:13 AM
christian:
how many major blizzards in philadelphia how many snowstorms and major snowstorms and how many inches of snow in philadelphia?
FROM JESSE: As noted in the blog, you cannot predict specifics this far in advance.
Posted by christian | October 17, 2008 7:32 PM
sean earley:
i live in cincinnati,oh will i see above average snow?
Posted by sean earley | October 15, 2008 7:14 PM
john m.:
Jesse: Joe says the northeast can expect more snow this year then last. I live on Long Island and from your comment above you don't think the storm track will make it to the I-95 corridor. You think it will set up in the Ohio Valley. That type of storm tack would mean very little snow for us and we are in the northeast.
Metro Madness shows the average coastal storm track going up off the mid-atlantic then east of Cape Cod which would mean alot of snow for Long Island.
Why is it you can all give a diffrent forecast when you look at the same information that helps you make the forecast?
FROM JESSE: To clarify what Joe said (I didn't put out my own forecast), the major cities will see more snow than last year (even if they get 'average' snowfall), but they will not be in a track to get above normal snowfall like the Great Lakes, eastern Ohio Valley and Pittsburgh. Meteorologists look at hundreds of different models and climatic indices to make a long-range forecast; it all depends on who believes which ones and how much.
Posted by john m. | October 9, 2008 7:38 PM
Sam:
Please. These long-term forecasts are about as accurate as flipping a coin. :P
Posted by Sam | October 9, 2008 12:12 PM
nicky:
jesse,
I was wondering. I live in southeast new york just north of westchester. will i see above average snow based on the winter forcast or no
Posted by nicky | October 8, 2008 8:26 PM
Brian H.:
I am a big fan of cold and snow so given all the bad news of late this is about the only bright spot. However I am not a big fan of heating bills. All I can say is winterize, winterize, and winterize more, and enjoy the winter.
Posted by Brian H. | October 8, 2008 12:14 PM
todd:
So Joe said the east can expect more snow than last year. I think I got about 6 inches total in South Central Pa. Does this mean we may break 10 inches this year? Did he issue a projected snowfall map for the winter? If so, where are we at. I saw Henry's and just wanted to compare.
Posted by todd | October 8, 2008 11:51 AM
Sheri:
I hope for once that Bastardi is right with his winter outlook but then again, i wouldn't expect nothing less than for him to predict a cold & snowy winter for the east.
FROM JESSE: Why do you say that? Last year, he predicted above normal temps and below normal snowfall for the East.
Posted by Sheri | October 8, 2008 11:23 AM
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